The Philadelphia Eagles put their perfect record on the line vs. the Dallas Cowboys and Cooper Rush’s flawless record as a starter. With the Cowboys coming in as 6.5-point underdogs, Rush might be passing more than he has this season which could mean big things for CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard.
Find out in my free NFL player prop picks for Sunday Night Football between the Commanders vs. Bears.
Be sure to also check out Jason Logan's full game betting preview for this matchup.
Cowboys vs Eagles props
- Hurts Over 45.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Lamb Over 59.5 passing yards (-115)
- Pollard Over 32.5 rushing yards (-114)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cowboys vs Eagles SNF props
Back on Hurts’ legs
The Eagles are running at the third-highest rate in football (52.25%) and Jalen Hurts got his legs back last week with a 15-carry, 61-yard rushing performance. On the season, the quarterback has 266 rushing yards which equal 33% of the team’s rushing total.
His Week 6 rushing total sits at 45.5 (PointsBet) after closing at 47.5 last week. Hurts has also seen a closing rushing total of 50 or higher twice this season, so a prime-time divisional matchup in a game THE BLITZ is projecting 73.19 rushing yards is a great place to hit this Over 45.5.
The Cowboys create pressure at the league’s highest rate (33%) but with that comes more opportunities to scramble. Hurts is averaging 7.43 yards per scramble and has a whopping 31 carries over the last two weeks.
The Eagles are healthier at running back than they were last week with Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott off the injury report. But with Hurts' usage looking stable and a market that might still be 10 yards too short, I’m backing the QB’s legs in a game where his eyes might not be downfield with all the pressure.
Jalen Hurts Prop: Over 45.5 rushing yards (-115)
Target monster
Cooper Rush hasn’t been lighting the QB world on fire, averaging just 193.75 passing over his four starts, but the signal caller has topped 215 yards in three of those starts. The majority of those passes are going CeeDee Lamb’s way as the Dallas receiver has an astounding 35% target share which leads the league.
Fun Fact: CeeDee Lamb is the only player who has been targeted 8+ times in every game this season. pic.twitter.com/wlHAUFlEPY
— StatMuse (@statmuse) October 6, 2022
Lamb had 53 of the team’s 103 passing yards last week and has 44% of the team’s air yards through five weeks. Tight end Dalton Schultz is questionable and the Cowboys could be asking for another heavy-targeted game from Lamb on the road as a 6.5-point underdog.
His average depth of target isn’t massive at 10.2 but he can certainly top his receiving total of 59.5 in volume alone. The 59.5 yards is a four-week low as he closed with a receiving total of 66.4 yards last week vs. the Rams. THE BLITZ is projecting him for 73.74 yards.
Weather and passing conditions look great for Sunday night while the matchup does favor the Dallas passing game with a possible negative game script in their favor. The Eagles give up 13.2 receptions per game to opposing WRs which is the seventh most in football.
I’m very happy to have the heaviest-targeted receiver in a game where they could be chasing points with a receiving total that is at a four-week low.
CeeDee Lamb Prop: Over 59.5 receiving yards (-115)
Tony’s modest total
We all know Tony Pollard is the more explosive back and should handle more carries than Ezekiel Elliott, but that isn’t going to happen. However, with a possible heavier role if the Cowboys do fall behind, Pollard could see his snap share increase as the third-down back — which would be a steal on his current 32.5 rushing yards
Over the last three weeks, Pollard has just one catch on four targets so I’m staying away from his role in the passing game, but even if Dallas does trail Sunday night, Mike McCarthy is unlikely to abandon the run with Cooper Rush under center. Pollard could find himself rushing into some soft defenses as a result.
yards after contact per rush, per @trumedia:
— Danny Kelly (@DannyBKelly) October 12, 2022
1. Tony Pollard (4.43)
2. Rhamondre Stevenson (4.24) ????
3. Nick Chubb (4.23)
4. Rashaad Penny (4.23) ????
5. Josh Jacobs (4.19)
6. Dameon Pierce (4.17) ????
7. Aaron Jones (3.98)
8. Saquon Barkley (3.81)
Dallas has trailed by more than one point for just five minutes since Rush took over four games ago. With all the positive and neutral game scripts, Pollard is still averaging 9.5 carries for 60 yards (6.31 ypc) as the No. 2 back. If Dallas is chasing points, the third-down and pass-catching back could see more time in the backfield. THE BLITZ is projecting 46 rushing yards.
The Eagles’ rush defense sits 19th in EPA/rush and 21st in success rate. D’Andre Swift (15/144/1) gouged them in Week 1 and teams just haven’t been rushing vs. this defense at just 21.2 carries against per game which is the second fewest in football.
Pollard has big-play ability which was on display last week with a 57-yard run. It was his second carry of 45 yards or more on the season. This total could be topped with an eight-carry workload but I’m projecting him for double-digit carries Sunday night.
Tony Pollard Prop: Over 32.5 rushing yards (-114 at Caesars)
