Two of the most storied franchises in football lore lock up on Sunday Night Football when the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5.
Pittsburgh’s strong start to the schedule hit its first speedbump with a loss last week, but my early Cowboys vs. Steelers predictions expect the home side to get back on track with a cover this week.
Find out more in my NFL picks for Sunday, October 6 below.
Cowboys vs Steelers predictions
Early spread lean
Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense took a shot to the chin in a loss to the Colts, but this is still one of the stingiest stop units in the land and it enters Week 5 ranked Top 8 in the “holy of holy” advanced metrics (EPA allowed and DVOA).
Complementing that defense is an offense slowly finding its way. Pittsburgh started the season as a popgun attack but has put up yardage totals of 346 and 404 in the past two outings. Red zone whiffs, turnovers, and penalties are stopping those gains from translating to points, but the Steelers are a sneaky 12th in EPA per play the last two weeks.
The Dallas Cowboys defense was once rated among the best in the NFL, but since losing Dan Quinn’s influence this offseason and going with coordinator Mike Zimmer, this stop unit has lost its bite. Dallas will be especially toothless in Week 5, with Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons missing due to injuries.
QB Justin Fields is coming off his best day as a Steeler and is always a threat to shred opposing defenses with his legs. The Cowboys have already been burned by Lamar Jackson, who scrambled for 87 yards and a touchdown in a Week 3 win that wasn’t as close as the final score would lead you to believe.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 43 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Pittsburgh finally played Over the total in Week 4 after four straight Under results to start the season. I’m back on the Under train in Week 5.
The Steelers don’t want a shootout, and with this game moving back to Acrisure Stadium, things should play a lot slower than they did indoors at Indy last weekend. The extended forecast is also calling for possible rain and thundershowers on Sunday night.
The Dallas attack is not... good. The Cowboys have their least talented team in years and beyond the Dak Prescott-to-CeeDee Lamb connection, they don’t have much else to work with. Dallas sits 19th in both EPA per play and DVOA on offense, and those stats are fudged due to a late scoring surge in Week 3.
The Steelers are the strongest stop unit the Cowboys have faced this season, continuing to play disruptive football. Pittsburgh is among the leaders in sacks, QB hits, and pressure rate as well as generating “game-changing plays” with four interceptions so far. Prescott will be pressing on throws and that’s never a good thing.
As for the Steelers offense, this is the fourth most run-heavy playbook in the league. Pittsburgh isn’t rolling over opponents by any means but could have more success against the Cowboys, who sit 31st in EPA allowed per handoff. That adds up to short gains with the clock ticking — a recipe for Unders.
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Cowboys vs Steelers live odds
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