Cowboys vs Steelers SNF Prop Bets: Fields Continues Passing the Grade

Prop bet #1: Justin Fields Over 187.5 passing yards

-110 at bet365

Justin Fields barely threw the ball the first two games of the season, but he completed 25-of-32 passes for 245 yards in Week 3 before throwing for 312 yards last week.

Fields seems to be getting more comfortable setting up in the pocket, and he'll have plenty of time to get comfortable on Sunday night with the Cowboys missing their two best pass rushers in Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. Dallas is still awaiting the return of Pro Bowl cornerback DaRon Bland following foot surgery, while their current starting corners, Trevon Diggs and Caelen Carson, are both questionable. 

Dallas has already been getting torched through the air, ranking 17th in the league in defensive dropback EPA and 26th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.2). Those injuries exacerbate the problem, and with Fields throwing more in recent weeks, he should be able to eclipse his low passing yards total. 

One thing to be aware of when betting this is the possibility of wet and windy conditions at Acrisure Stadium. Make sure you double-check the weather before making this play, but as long as the rain isn't heavy and crosswinds stay below the 15mph threshold, I'd pull the trigger.   

Prop bet #2: Najee Harris Over 2.5 receptions

-105 at bet365

This isn't so much a confidence play in Najee Harris as it is an acknowledgment that he's the only competent player left in the Steelers backfield. The Steelers have ruled out Jaylen Warren and Cordarelle Patterson, who both cut into Harris' snaps — especially on passing downs.

Warren racked up 61 receptions last year, and he posted five catches this year before suffering a knee injury in Week 3. Patterson is a former wide receiver who hauled in five of seven targets out of the backfield over the last two weeks. 

The Steelers love to throw the ball to their backs, and that means more targets for Harris, who logged five catches in Week 3 before grabbing three of six targets last week. 

Prop bet #3: Rico Dowdle Under 41.5 rushing yards

-110 at bet365

The Cowboys have one of the least effective rushing attacks in the league with the carries being split between washed-up Ezekiel Elliott and the forgettable Rico Dowdle.

Dowdle has 34 carries for 134 yards this year, and he's coming off an 11-carry, 46-yard performance against the Giants, which was actually his best performance of the season. A Dallas offensive line that ranks just 24th in run-blocking grade doesn't help, but Dowdle also shoulders plenty of the blame with his rush yards over expected per attempt (-0.79), the seventh-worst number in the league. 

Even if the Cowboys were to feed Dowdle the ball, he'd have a tough time finding holes against a Steelers stop unit that is stout against the run. Pittsburgh's defense is third in the league in rush EPA and rush success rate while holding opposing running backs to just 3.5 yards per carry.