It is a must-win situation for the 7-8 Miami Dolphins when they head to Northeast Ohio to take on the 3-12 Cleveland Browns.
The Dolphins are 2-5 on the road this season and historically bad in cold weather. The Browns have lost four consecutive games and scored 27 points in their last three games combined.
My selections for the Dolphins vs. Browns expect the struggles to continue on both sides.
Find out why I am projecting a low-scoring game in my NFL picks for Sunday, December 29.
Dolphins vs Browns prediction
My best bet
Under 37.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This is a very low number for an offense with the firepower of the Miami Dolphins, but several other factors are at play here. The most obvious factor is the Cleveland Browns offense, with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback and no Nick Chubb at running back.
There is just nothing to scare you offensively from the Browns.
Thompson-Robinson has only one passing touchdown in his four career starts compared to six interceptions. He also has only averaged 144.3 passing yards per game and 28.5 rushing yards in those four starts. That makes things very easy for opposing defenses.
Meanwhile, the Dolphins have only averaged 15.3 points per game on the road this season. Fortunately for them, this late December game in Cleveland will actually not be cold.
The Dolphins only average 18.9 points per game in games started by Tua Tagovailoa in games that are below 50 degrees.
Currently, the weather forecast is predicting the temperature to be in the mid to low 50s throughout the game. However, it will be windy and rainy and that is not good for any offense.
Besides the weather, the Browns' defense will make their mark on this game.
Tue lives on quick passes and getting rid of the ball quickly. However, the Browns defense ranks sixth in the NFL allowing a completion percentage of only 70.9% on quick passes – passes under 2.5 seconds from snap.
Unless the Dolphins' offense goes off, which seems unlikely given all of the circumstances, this Under seems like an excellent bet.
Dolphins vs Browns same-game parlay
Under 37.5
Jerome Ford Under 51.5 rushing yards
Tua Tagovailoa Under 21.5 pass completions
To go along with our best bet, I am adding a couple of player props that fit our game script. Running back Jerome Ford has recorded 124 of his 176 rushing yards over the last two weeks before contact.
However, the Dolphins' defense ranks first in the NFL in allowing opposing running backs to generate only 0.3 yards before contact per carry. This will be tough sledding against a defense that knows the passing game is almost non-existent.
Finally, I will add Tagovailoa to keep his pass completions down. We already mentioned how good the Browns defense is against quick passes, and with the windy and rainy weather, there will not be much opportunity for Tua to air it out.
This game should be ugly and will likely rely more heavily on the run game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Dolphins vs Browns odds
Dolphins vs Browns live odds
Dolphins vs Browns opening odds
- Spread: Miami -6 (-110) | Cleveland +6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami (-250) | Cleveland (+200)
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 (-110) | Under 41.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Dolphins vs Browns spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Browns are 4-11 against the spread this season and have failed to cover six of the past seven games.
- The favorite has covered four of the past seven matchups with one push between these two teams.
- The Under is receiving 27% of the money despite getting only 15% of the bets.
- The Under has hit in each of the past three Browns games and six of the seven road games for the Dolphins this season.
Dolphins vs Browns betting trend to know
The Miami Dolphins have only hit the Team Total Over in one of their last eight away games, and the Cleveland Browns have only hit the Team Total Over in four of their last 19 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Browns.
Dolphins vs Browns game info
| Location: | Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-29, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Dolphins vs Browns latest injuries
Dolphins vs Browns weather
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