A pair of new head coaches will look to make a good first impression as Arthur Smith and the Atlanta Falcons host Nick Sirianni and the Philadelphia Eagles at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 1 NFL action.
Jalen Hurts will lead the Eagles, who have the worst betting odds to win the NFC East this year at +500. The former Alabama QB will face 2021 fourth overall pick Kyle Pitts, who could be in for a huge rookie season with TE-loving HC Smith calling the shots for the Falcons.
NFL betting lines have the Falcons as 3-point favorites for Week 1 with the O/U at 48. Here are our best free Eagles vs. Falcons picks and predictions for September 12.
Eagles vs Falcons odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Falcons opened up as -3.5 point favorites but have since slipped down to a flat -3 pretty much across the board. The total has also seen some movement hitting 48 after opening at 47. Be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets, and also view the full line movement for this game.
Eagles vs Falcons picks
Picks made on 9/8/2021 at 8:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Eagles vs Falcons game info
• Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Sunday, September 12, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Eagles at Falcons betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key injuries
Eagles: Gardner Minshew QB (Out), Davion Taylor LB (Out), Rodney McLeod S (Out).
Falcons: Wayne Gallman RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Eagles are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games in September. Find more NFL betting trends for Eagles vs. Falcons.
Eagles vs Falcons predictions
ATS Atlanta -3 (-110)
Atlanta may look like a team to fade early in the season after some of its disastrous losses in 2020 and losing some big names on both sides of the ball. However, the Falcons may be a more stable team heading into the season than people think.
The Eagles have turned over the majority of their coaching staff and have implemented Nick Sirianni as the head coach heading into the 2021 season. Sirianni comes over from Indianapolis where he was the OC but didn’t have the responsibility of play-calling, which doesn't have us falling in love with him and the Eagles' offense. The Eagles will also have former Chargers OC Shane Steichen. The Philadelphia brass is hoping Steichen can turn Hurts into Justin Herbert — the only problem is Hurts and Herbert are two very different players.
Hurts may be a flashy name as his rushing ability had the fantasy world abuzz at the end of last year but as a passer, he was dreadful and finished dead last in completion percentage over expectation and now lacks any sort of experience in his wide receivers. We like this offense to struggle out of the gates and rely heavily on Hurts’ ability to create with his legs. Hurts had a -17.5 percent DVOA last year, which was worse than Joe Flacco's.
This is also a Philadelphia defense that finished 2020 with the 24th ranked pass defense by DVOA and didn’t upgrade at any position in the secondary. New Atlanta coach Arthur Smith is a tight end whisperer and with No. 4 overall pick Kyle Pitts at his disposal, he should be able to find a ton of mismatches with his single and double TE sets against a Philly pass defense that is a bottom-10 unit.
Smith also gives us more confidence than Sirianni, as he turned Ryan Tannehill into a Top-10 QB while in Tennessee. Matt Ryan may not be an exciting name anymore but he still led this offense to a Top-13 passing attack by DVOA last year, and could actually take a step forward with a competent mind running the offense and a ton of solid pass-catching options, including Calvin Ridley who has the fourth-best betting odds to lead the league in receiving (+900).
However, as much we like the Falcons on Sunday, it’s at -3 and not -3.5. The difference is a deal-breaker for us. This spread opened at ATL -3.5 and has fallen to us at -3 which is a number we can get behind as we don't trust the Falcons' defense by more than a field goal.
Over 48 (-110)
Both of these teams finished in the bottom third in defensive pass DVOA a season ago and aren’t projected to have solid secondaries in 2021.
The Falcons have one defensive starter with a Pro Football Focus grade above 69, and head into the season with their three top CBs all ranking in the bottom half of the league. If Hurts does extend some plays, he increases the chances of his receivers breaking coverage and hooking up with a deep ball. The Falcons have a new defensive coordinator and won’t have any starting safeties returning from last year. A season ago, Atlanta allowed nearly 300 passing yards per game.
The Falcons also don’t have much of a pass rush heading into the opener. Their three top edge rushers combined for just 5.5 total sacks last year.
Offensively, Atlanta could surprise a ton of people this year. They are built to put up points, with receiver Calvin Ridley a serious contender to lead the league in receiving yards. However, the important thing is how well this personnel matches the strengths of Smith, who calls more double tight ends sets than any other coach in football. On top of Pitts, Smith also has Hayden Hurst, who is a first rounder himself and expected to have a big role in the offense this year. It’s been reported that the 2021 Falcons will be more pass-heavy than the 2020 Titans, which is great news for Over backers.
This total quickly passed the key number of 47 but 48 isn’t enough to scare us off this indoor game between a pair of terrible secondaries.
Kyle Pitts Over 40.5 receiving yards
Tight ends don’t usually leap into the NFL and have immediate success, but this year’s fourth overall pick could easily be the exception. He has lined up all over the field in practice and hauled in his only preseason target for 27 yards in the Falcons’ third preseason game.
His landing spot in Atlanta couldn’t have been any better as he gets one of the better offensive play-callers for tight ends in all of football in Arthur Smith. The new Atlanta coach has said his team is going to pass more than his previous teams and will move Pitts around the formation. Smith wants to use him up the seam, where he could be picking up chunks of yards as Philly’s corners worry about Calvin Ridley.
At 40.5 total yards, Pitts could be cashing Over tickets early and we doubt he will need a ton of volume to get there with his skillset. Smith and Matt Ryan will like to get their new toy involved early and often against an Eagles team that allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends a year ago.
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