The Los Angeles Rams will look to stick around in a tight NFC West race as they host the streaking Philadelphia Eagles for Sunday Night Football in Week 12.
While the Rams played well vs. the Patriots, my early Eagles vs. Rams predictions believe Philly has too many weapons for L.A. to contain.
Find out more in my early NFL picks for Sunday, November 24.
Eagles vs Rams predictions
Early spread lean
Eagles -3 (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
The Philadelphia Eagles are the better team in this matchup. The only question is whether they’re good enough to overcome Los Angeles' home-field advantage and cover a field-goal spread on the road.
I expect the Eagles to cover here. Philadelphia has won six straight games, with all of those wins coming by four points or more. Three of those wins have come on the road, and none were closer than 20-point decisions. This is not a team that has trouble playing away from home.
This Eagles offense should be able to move the ball against the Rams with a run-first approach. It’s not that Los Angeles hasn’t been effective against the run, but the Eagles are just too good in this area, as Philadelphia is averaging a massive 5.0 yards per rush. Saquon Barkley has been virtually unstoppable, and quarterback Jalen Hurts is a constant threat, whether it's in the open field or via the Tush Push.
Philadelphia could also choose to move to the passing game if they want to. The Eagles haven’t thrown the ball much by NFL standards, but have been efficient when they choose to, with Hurts completing 69.2% of his passes on the season. That might be something the Eagles look to exploit against a Rams defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in yards allowed per passing attempt (7.5).
We all know Matthew Stafford is capable of putting up big games for the Rams, just as he did in a four-touchdown performance last week against the Patriots. But he’ll face much more resistance against Philadelphia, which leads the
NFL both in total yards allowed (273.1 per game) and yards per passing attempt (5.5), and ranks among the top five in many other key passing defense categories including completion percentage against (61.5%) and opposing QB rating (76.4).
Covering as a road favorite is never easy. But these teams aren’t even as close as their records might suggest, especially with how Philly has been playing over the past month or so. I’m taking the Eagles here, especially if you don’t have to give up more than a field goal.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 49.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
With these two offenses both capable of putting up a lot of points, it’s tempting to look at the Over as a potential play in this matchup. However, I’m going to run the other way, at least as long as the total remains over a combined seven touchdowns.
The Eagles have hit the Under in each of their last two games, as well as four of their last six. As good as the Philadelphia offense has been, it has only scored more than 34 points once this season, so it’s hard to imagine they’ll be able to carry this total on their own. The Rams' defense hasn’t been great, but it is only allowed 23.9 ppg — hardly a unit that is being run over by its opponents.
In fact, Los Angeles hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in any of its last eight games. The problem is that the Rams also have only scored 28+ points twice in that span. If Stafford can’t entirely control things in the passing game — something he’s only done a couple of times this season, and not an easy task against the Eagles' defense — then this offense sputters.
That has me looking at an average offensive performance for Philadelphia, while the Rams should contribute less than usual to the total. I’m not sure how that adds up to 50+ points over the course of 60 minutes. I’m leaning towards the Under, though I’d be less interested in this bet if the total drops a point or two.
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Eagles vs Rams live odds
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