Just three games remain of this fantastic NFL season, and we’re set for an incredible Sunday with the AFC and NFC champions being decided.
We’ve got a host of superstars facing off, and I have a pair of NFL touchdown props and NFL picks to explain who will strike first in each game.
Conference Championship first touchdown scorer props
- Terry McLaurin (+1000 at FanDuel)
- Xavier Worthy (+1200 at DraftKings)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Conference Championship first TD picks
Terry McLaurin first TD scorer (+1000 at FanDuel)
The Philadelphia Eagles are six-point favorites against the Washington Commanders, and common sense would tell us to take a look at a Philadelphia player to open the scoring.
Saquon Barkley is at a prohibitively short price at +350 to score first, while a banged-up Jalen Hurts doesn’t make sense at +550. We’ve also seen the Commanders undervalued all season and continue to confound the books and critics alike. With Jayden Daniels under center, nothing is impossible.
When it comes to picking a Commander to score first, you have to take Terry McLaurin: He’s scored 15 touchdowns this season, which, let’s not forget, is only two fewer than Barkley.
He’s scored in seven of his past eight games, including that Week 16 shootout with the Eagles. You’re getting a big price on a player who has been incredibly prolific this season and has good form against this very opposition. In terms of a value proposition this is far better than the short price available on Saquon.
Xavier Worthy first TD scorer (+1200 at DraftKings)
Much like the previous selection in the NFC Conference Championship game, this is a decision based on value. At +600, you can’t really argue with Josh Allen, especially given his ability with his legs and his propensity to put the team on his back in big games.
However, there’s a nagging feeling that somebody is being hugely undervalued on the Kansas City Chiefs roster, and that’s Xavier Worthy.
We can’t forget he’s scored nine teams this season. Nor can we forget three of those came on the ground. He’s the only player on the Chiefs’ offense who vaguely resembles a gadget player, with trick players something we’ve frequently seen from Andy Reid’s team in the biggest moments.
The team has continually looked to get the ball in his hands over the past month or so, and he offers a skillset nobody else dressed in red does. In his past four games, he’s had 37 targets, nine carries, and three touchdowns.
Worthy has gone under the radar in his rookie season, especially compared with other receivers like Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr, but they’re sat watching him on TV at home, and he might just be about to break out.
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