We’re now 10 weeks into the NFL season but don’t worry, this Week 10 slate has plenty of exciting games. We’ve broken down the data to pick our three favorite First TD picks for Sunday's full day of NFL action.
Read on for my best three NFL picks and NFL TD props for Week 10 NFL action.
Week 10 first touchdown scorer props
- Bijan Robinson First Touchdown (+500 @ FanDuel)
- Justin Jefferson First Touchdown (+550 @ DraftKings)
- George Kittle First Touchdown (+900 @ FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 10 first TD picks
First TD prop bet #1: Bijan Robinson
Best odds: +500 at FanDuel
First, we’ll be taking Bijan Robinson to open the scoring in New Orleans. He’s scored five times this season, but four of those have come in the past month. He’s on a good run of form and is getting high volume. Last Week, he had 19 carries in addition to seven receptions. That’s elite volume, and if the Atlanta Falcons are in the red zone, then they frequently look to Robinson.
Then we need to consider the opposition, and the New Orleans Saints haven’t been good against running backs this season. Only three teams have given up more touchdowns to the position than the Saints, who have allowed 11 touchdowns in nine games.
First TD prop bet #2: Justin Jefferson
Best odds: +550 at DraftKings
Justin Jefferson has five touchdowns on the season but hasn’t found the end zone in either of his past two outings despite putting up 100+ yards in each game. Sunday gives JJ a perfect chance for a ‘get right’ game as his Minnesota Vikings meet the Jacksonville Jaguars secondary, a unit who have allowed 264.3 yards per game, the second most in the NFL.
Jefferson leads his team in red zone targets and faces a defense that ranks fifth in terms of touchdowns allowed to wide receivers. It’s the perfect situation for Jefferson, and he’s likely to be matched up against Ronald Darby, who has struggled over the past month.
First TD prop bet #3: George Kittle
Best odds: +900 at Fanduel
The San Francisco 49ers meet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the majority of the talk has been around the return of Christian McCaffrey. The returning running back is a favorite to open the scoring and as short as -220 to score anytime. That seems like a huge risk given the nature of the injury that he’s returning from; the question is how we navigate that. The idea of backing Jordan Mason is a possibility, thinking that he may get more carries than many expect. We also have to consider Deebo Samuel, however, it’s George Kittle who is the smartest play.
This has been a real return to form for Kittle, who is playing at his best level in years. The tight end has scored six times in his seven games this season and gets reasonable volume, with at least seven targets in each of the past two weeks. He leads the 49ers in red zone targets and offers a big-bodied threat to the Bucs, who have allowed a TE touchdown nearly one in every two games this year.
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