Three weeks into the NFL season we’re starting to get a far better idea of which offenses we can trust, ones we need to avoid, and which players are starting to earn more usage in those offenses.
Now it’s time to turn that information into cold, hard cash with my first touchdown scorer NFL picks for Week 3!
Week 3 first touchdown scorer props
- Brock Bowers (+1,000 at FanDuel)
- Jonathan Taylor (+450 at BetMGM)
- Derrick Henry (+650 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 3 first TD picks
First TD prop bet #1: Brock Bowers
Best odds: +1,000 at FanDuel
We’re yet to see Brock Bowers score his first NFL touchdown, but it’s something coming and coming very soon. He’s been playing lights out through the opening two games of the season, catching six of eight targets in the opening week, followed by hauling in all nine against the Ravens.
The Panthers let Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson both find the end zone against them in their opener, and if there’s anybody who could take advantage of a defense struggling to stop tight ends, it’s one of the most gifted young TEs in the game.
First TD prop bet #2: Jonathan Taylor
Best odds: +450 at BetMGM
The main talking point around the Bears has been Caleb Williams, who has really struggled in his first two games in the league. He deserves part of the blame, but his offensive line has been woeful. With Chicago struggling on offense, I'm going to back a Colts player to open the scoring, and that’s going to be Jonathan Taylor.
The Bears’ defense has been playing exceptionally this season, but particularly through the air. Anthony Richardson hasn’t demonstrated he’s an elite passer yet and will have a tough task against this secondary and pass rush.
So I'll take their best rusher, just ahead of Richardson himself. Tony Pollard rushed for a TD against the Bears in Week 1 and Taylor comes into this after a dominant display against the Packers last week.
First TD prop bet #3: Derrick Henry
Best odds: +650 at BetMGM
We expected a lot from the Cowboys this season, but they’ve really struggled to deliver. Their game against the Ravens gives us an opportunity to enjoy two very fun offenses. Given how Dallas struggled against running backs, I'm going to take the Ravens’ best, Derrick Henry, to open the scoring.
In the opening week we saw Jerome Ford find the end zone against the Cowboys before Alvin Kamara scored four last week — three on the ground and one in the passing game. We even saw Derek Carr get in on the act with a rushing touchdown of his own.
Henry is a big, physical back who has already scored in both of his games as a Raven. Last week, he saw an increase in carries, and should that maintain, he has a great chance of scoring here and scoring early.
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