Jaguars vs Titans Week 14 Picks and Predictions: Jags Hunted on the Road

The Tennessee Titans are 8-4 on the season and sit atop the AFC South. But the Titans sure don’t look like a first-place team at the moment. They are battered, are having trouble scoring, and have lost two in a row.

So, you could certainly say the Titans are in desperate need of a “get-right” game — Jacksonville Jaguars come on down! If there is a team that is more of a mess right now than the Titans, it’s the Jags.

But which shaky team will cover the 8.5-point spread? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Jaguars vs. Titans on Sunday, December 12.

Jaguars vs Titans odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Titans actually opened this game as 11-point home favorites but their recent struggles have led to the early money backing the Jaguars and pushing the line all the way down to 8.5. The total hit the board at 43.5 and has bounced back-and-forth between that and 44 as of Thursday afternoon.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

Jaguars vs Titans predictions

• Prediction: Titans -8.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 44 (-110)
• Best bet: Titans -8.5 (-110) & Marvin Jones Jr. Over 37.5 rec yards (-115)

Predictions made on 12/9/2021 at 3:50 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Jaguars vs Titans game info

• Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
• Date: Sunday, December 12, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS

Jaguars at Titans betting preview

Weather

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Key injuries

Jaguars: Brandon Linder C (Out), Tre Herndon CB (Out), Jacob Hollister TE (Out), Jordan Smith LB (Out), Jay Tufele DT (Out).
Titans: Khari Blasingame RB (Out), Dez Fitzpatrick WR (Out), Dillon Radunz OG (Out), Teair Tart RT (Out), Zach Cunningham LB (Out), Janoris Jenkins CB (Out), David Long LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Jaguars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine meetings against the Titans. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Titans.

Jaguars vs Titans picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

When I first looked at this line, I thought there was no way the Derrick Henry-less Titans could cover 8.5-point chalk. Then, I remembered it was the Jaguars. 

Jacksonville has lost four in a row and just can’t seem to get out of its own way while Urban Meyer continues to prove he doesn’t seem fit to coach an NFL team. His latest gaffe was when he deflected blame for the apparent benching of James Robinson last week.

Robinson fumbled against the Rams and then basically sat out the rest of the half. Fine. But when Carlos Hyde fumbled, no such punishment occurred, and when asked about it, Meyer deferred blame and told reporters to ask his offensive coordinator and running backs coach. 

Oh, yeah. And James Robinson is the Jags' best player and basically its lone bright spot. By far.

While Tennessee hasn’t been good of late, it's coming off a bye and has had extra time to prepare for the lowly Jags. Ryan Tannehill also gets Julio Jones back, and while Jones isn’t who he once was, he’s still an upgrade over who the Titans have been trotting out there recently. 

Now, they get to face a Jaguars defense that ranks next-to-last in the NFL in DVOA. On top of that, the Jags are winless on the road, where they lose by 15.8 points per game. 

Titans by at least 10.

Prediction: Titans -8.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

While there is some trepidation backing a Titans team to cover a big number considering the way they have played of late, that same worry shouldn’t carry over to the total.

For starters, it sure looks like Derrick Henry covered up a lot of flaws for this Titans offense, particularly those of quarterback Ryan Tannehill. The Titans’ offense ranks 22rd in DVOA and 23rd against the pass and Tannehill just needs to be better. 

Tannehill is averaging just 217.6 yards per game over the last seven games and has thrown at least one pick in six of those seven games. As a result, the Titans' offense has stalled and has scored just 16.3 points per game over the last three games. 

Meanwhile, the Jags offense, well, it stinks. Trevor Lawrence is going through his growing pains. The rookie is completing just 58 percent of his passes and has more interceptions than touchdowns.

Jacksonville’s offense ranks 27th in DVOA and is averaging just 10.7 points per game over its last seven contests. It doesn’t help that the Jags, for some reason, don’t want to use their best player, but as Under bettors, we’ll take it.

Prediction: Under 44 (-110)

Best bets

While it is safe to bet the Titans here — and we will — there is another bet I want to make in this game, which is one that takes advantage of the Titans god-awful secondary.

Tennessee surrenders the most yards and receptions per game to opposing receivers. So, while Trevor Lawrence has had his struggles, he still throws the ball 35.5 times per game and that should continue in a game they should be trailing for much of it.

Lawrence’s top target this year has been veteran Marvin Jones Jr. Jones only has 48 receptions for 540 yards but has been targeted 82 times by the rookie QB. And those struggles have been bad enough that we get a nice low receiving yard total of 37.5 for this game — a number he’s gone Over twice in his last three games.

He’s a great bet to make it three of four against a Titans pass defense that resembles Swiss cheese. 

Pick: Titans -8.5 (-110) & Marvin Jones Jr. Over 37.5 receiving yards (-115)

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