The last time the Miami Dolphins were as big a favorite as they are hosting the New York Jets in Week 6, we were only two chapters into the Conjuring franchise and we were humming along to Fifth Harmony’s “Work From Home”, but not in the ironic way we do now. Ah, simpler times.
OK, so we didn’t have to blow the dust off the NFL betting odds to find the last time Miami was giving this many – Week 3, 2016 – but it’s still a little startling to see the Fins as lofty faves.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Jets vs. Dolphins on October 18.
New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins betting preview
Weather
The forecast for this 4 p.m. ET kickoff is calling for a 60 percent chance of thundershowers, temperatures in the low 80s and winds blowing ENE up to 20 mph in Miami. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Jets: Sam Darnold QB (Out), Mekhi Becton T (Out), Chris Hogan WR (Out).
Dolphins: Jordan Howard RB (Out), Kyle Van Noy LB (Out), Davon Godchaux DT (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Dolphins.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Instead of asking if the Dolphins are good enough to be 8.5-point favorites, perhaps we should ask if the Jets are 8.5 points worse. New York is 0-5 and has yet to cover a spread in 2020, most recently losing 30-10 as a 7-point home underdog to Arizona last Sunday.
Granted, Gang Green was wheeling out veteran quarterback Joe Flacco to replace the injured Sam Darnold. Flacco posted a classic Flacco game, a paper-thin Jets depth chart rolled out a number of unknown names, and solid efforts from Le’Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder were wasted.
Bell isn’t an option in Week 6, with the disgruntled running back catching the first flight out of Jersey after being released Monday evening. That leaves New York with the veteran legs of Frank Gore, who is starting to show his age with just 3.2 yards per carry in 2020, and rookie RB La'Mical Perine.
Under center, Darnold is on the sideline again with Flacco announced as the Week 6 starter on Wednesday, so expect some vanilla football from the J-E-T... oh forget it.
The Dolphins have played better than their 2-3 SU record would indicate, and have held their own with much stronger opponents, staying in the game well into the fourth quarter. With the team coming off a huge 42-17 win as 8.5-point underdogs in San Francisco, the letdown spot looms large over this line.
We know the Jets are bad – and just got worse – and the Fins have shown plenty of fight. If you don’t like laying this lumber with Miami, feel free to look somewhere else (scroll down). But for our purposes, we have to make a pick and that’s going to be…(closes eyes and grits teeth)… Miami.
PREDICTION: Miami -8.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Despite his ups-and-downs, Darnold is a much better option at QB than Flacco. And this total will tick down following the release of his Week 6 status. The current Over/Under is sitting at 47.5 points for this AFC East rivalry, which is the highest total between the teams over their last 11 matchups.
Both defenses are tough to breakdown for a number of reasons. Looking under the hood, we see Miami ranked 31st in DVOA at Football Outsiders – a metric that considers the strength of opponents. The Fins do some things right – checking opponents to 38 percent success on third downs – and what they do wrong, like red-zone defense and slowing the run, aren’t strengths of the Jets attack.
As for New York, this stop unit has allowed more than 32 points per game on the season, but still sits 10th in defensive DVOA. The Jets defense doesn’t get a fair shake due to the ineptitude of the offense, which averages a measly 2:26 per drive and ranks third-worst in time of possession. Even the stiffest defenses would buckle under that much field time.
The Jets and Dolphins have leaned to the Under in recent meetings, playing below the total in three of their last four head-to-head contests. The weather could also slow things down in South Beach, with the forecast calling for possible rain and strong winds.
PREDICTION: Under 47.5 (-110)
Scoring prop pick
In a game like this – in a rivalry like this - you gotta look for some weirdo results. And given the current company under center, it wouldn’t be surprising to see more than one wayward pass end up in the hands of a defender or for a loose ball to get scooped up and run back for six points – especially if the weekend forecast holds true.
Flacco has bettors holding their breath on almost every pass and Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t exactly kept a clean sheet in his previous encounters with Gang Green either, boasting 12 career INTs versus the Jets – second only behind the Patriots in terms of opponents. Fitzpatrick has five interceptions so far in 2020 and Flacco finished his brief stint in Denver with six TDs to five INTs last season.
It will likely be an ugly contest on Sunday, so in the haunting words of Health Ledger’s Joker, “Introduce a little anarchy” in your bets and take the “Yes” on a defensive or special teams touchdown to be scored.
PREDICTION: Defensive or special teams touchdown scored (+225)
Jets vs Dolphins betting card
- Miami -8.5 (-110)
- Under 47.5 (-110)
- Defensive or special teams touchdown scored (+225)
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