Justin Fields Odds and TNF Props: Fields Is Due for More Mistakes on Thursday Night

Thursday Night Football features a Week 5 odds clash between the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders. The Commanders come into tonight's contest as 5.5-point favorites, according to NFL odds, and are well-backed to beat an 0-4 Bears team.

I’ve taken a look at Justin Fields' odds, as much has been made of the Chicago quarterback's struggles this year, and I'll dive into my latest NFL picks for Thursday Night Football as the Bears try to recover from blowing a lead over the Broncos last weekend.

For more TNF odds analysis, check out our full Commanders vs. Bears predictions, as well as our TNF prop picks. 

Justin Fields TNF prop picks

• Over 0.5 interceptions
• Fields Over 0.5 interceptions + Fields Over 46.5 rushing yards + Moore Over 3.5 receptions

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Justin Fields TNF prop pick

Over 0.5 interceptions (-129)

The Chicago Bears thought they’d found their franchise quarterback when they drafted Justin Fields as the 11th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. He had a rough season as a rookie but showed some growth last year as a sophomore. Big things were expected from Fields this season, but he has yet to take a step forward as a QB... and if anything, he’s regressed.

Through four games, Fields is averaging just 215.3 passing yards per game with a TD-INT ratio of 7:5.

Apologies in advance to Bears fans, but our best bet will be taking the former Ohio State standout to hit Over 0.5 interceptions on Thursday night. Fields has been picked in every single game this season, and it’s also clear from the four games this season that the team wants him to pass the football and not just rely on his rushing ability.

While I'm expecting a slight tweak in Chicago's game plan to take advantage of the Washington Commanders' run defense (more on that in a minute), I still expect Fields to remain pass-heavy for the most part, especially if the Bears are trailing early on.

One thing we’ve learned with Fields is that passing attempts equal interceptions, and Washington should be in a good position to continue the bad INT streak in Week 5. 

Prop: Over 0.5 interceptions (-129 at Caesars)

Justin Fields TNF same-game parlay

Justin Fields Over 0.5 interceptions

Justin Fields Over 46.5 rushing yards 

D.J. Moore Over 3.5 receptions

50% boost available

+450 +675 at bet365

Our Fields-themed Same-Game Parlay for TNF comes in at +450, and I think it offers some real value.

First up, we’ll be going with our best bet which is for Justin Fields to throw a pick. It’s something we’ve seen time and again this season and I’m confident that a middle-of-the-pack Commanders' defense will be able to do enough to intercept him.

One surprising aspect regarding Fields is his limited use of his running abilities this season. His projected rushing yards for this game stand at 46.5 yards, a relatively high number. However, he has surpassed this mark twice in four games this season.

Additionally, it's worth noting that Washington's defense has allowed 131 rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, putting the Commanders near the bottom of the league in this category. While the Bears are emphasizing Fields' development as a passer, Fields still has the opportunity to exploit Washington's defense with his legs.

Finally, we’ll be taking D.J. Moore to hit the Over on his reception total of 3.5. He’s an elite wideout and has already had two 100+ yard games. It’s also worth noting that after seeing just two targets in Week 1, he’s had seven, six, and nine since then. The Commanders have given up over 200 passing yards to WRs this season and I expect Moore to haul in at least four targets.

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