For the second straight week, the Chicago Bears will be in primetime. After suffering a 12-7 defeat at Soldier Field in a forgettable Thursday night affair in Week 6, the Monsters of the Midway will invade Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots to end Week 7.
Bears quarterback Justin Fields has not exactly thrown his hat in the ring for NFL MVP this year, but that doesn’t mean his NFL player prop markets aren’t offering solid wagering opportunities. Here are our three favorite Justin Fields props for Monday, October 24.
Be sure to also check out Jason Logan's Bears vs. Patriots betting preview as well as Josh Inglis' favorite player prop picks for Monday Night Football.
Justin Fields MNF prop picks
- Over 159.5 passing yards (-115)
- Longest pass completion Over 32.5 yards (-110)
- Over 7.5 rushing attempts (-115)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Justin Fields MNF props
Low bar to clear
The lines set for Justin Fields’ completions (13.5) and attempts (25.5) are fair, with no decisive edge on either side. Yet his yardage line being offered at just 159.5 seems way too low. Over bettors should take advantage.
The kid gloves have come off for Fields to some extent, though he’s not dropping back on practically every play like Justin Herbert now. Fields threw a season-high 27 passes in last Thursday’s loss to the Commanders, and recorded 190 passing yards. The week before that, he went for a 2022-best 208 passing yards against the Vikings.
Fields has tossed at least 21 passes in his last three games, and despite a fairly low completion rate of 57.1%, he has eclipsed this passing yards line on each occasion. The likelihood is that the heavily-favored Patriots will jump out to an early lead, especially if Mac Jones is back under center as expected. That will force the Bears to turn to Fields to keep them in the game with his arm, and more attempts will lead to more yardage.
Prop: Over 159.5 passing yards (-115)
Justin goes long
Part of the reason why Fields has accumulated a decent amount of passing yards of late despite Chicago’s run-heavy style is his ability to hit “home runs” through the air. The Patriots have proven to be vulnerable in this area in 2022, so we’ll add the Over on Fields’ longest completion to our plays.
New England enters this tilt ranked 15th by passing yards allowed per game (218.8), but 21st in yards allowed per catch (11.4). Their DADOT — or defense average depth of target — is 9.2, the second-highest mark in the league. That means opponents are looking to beat the Patriots over the top, and are doing so with a good amount of success.
Fields has a completion of at least 39 yards, let alone 33, in each of his last three contests. Darnell Mooney has pulled down two of those passes, and Dante Pettis the other. The latter has been seldom used this season, but also had a 51-yard grab in Week 1.
Mooney was targeted a season-high 12 times last Thursday (seven receptions), so he’s finally starting to develop a rapport with Fields. That should aid Over bettors in this market.
Prop: Longest completion Over 32.5 yards (-110)
Pocket pressure
Just because Fields might drop back a bunch of times on Monday night doesn’t mean he’ll have an easy time doing it. Bettors should back the Ohio State product to be busy scrambling throughout the evening.
Even with an uptick in pass attempts over the last three weeks, Fields has consistently used his legs to pick up yards in 2022. He’s rushed fewer than eight times only once this year, when he carried the rock seven times in Week 4.
Fields will likely be under duress on a regular basis, as the Bears' offensive line have surrendered the most sacks on any team (23), with by far the highest sack percentage against in the NFL (16.7%). The Pats are seventh in sacks this season (17), so look for their pass rushers to bring Fields down a couple of times, and force him to take off more often than he might like.
Prop: Over 7.5 rushing attempts (-115)
