Lamar Jackson has been busting myths ever since entering the NFL, and a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday would go a long way toward proving he can handle this division rival.
The Steelers have had Jackson’s number, including in the teams’ first meeting of the season, but he rebounded in their Week 16 matchup. There’s a lot to like about the Lamar Jackson odds for tonight's showdown.
Lamar Jackson player prop picks
- Best bet
Lamar Jackson Over 48.5 rushing yards
(-120 at BetMGM) - SGP Pick
Lamar Jackson Over 48.5 rushing yards
Lamar Jackson Under 216.5 passing yards
Under 43.5
(+375 at BetMGM)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Lamar Jackson prop pick
My best bet
Lamar Jackson Over 48.5 rushing yards (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It’s impossible to overstate the stakes for Lamar Jackson coming into this postseason, and an opening clash against a bruising AFC North rival is hardly an ideal way to kick off a Super Bowl run.
But a night game at M&T Bank Stadium, with temperatures dipping below 30 degrees, plays to Jackson’s strengths. I expect the Baltimore Ravens to ride the run game in a big way on Saturday.
That’s where I’m looking with my top pick from the NFL player props market this weekend. Jackson finished the regular season with 915 rushing yards — his most since 2020 — and he’s flown past this 48.5 line in four of his past five outings.
Jackson’s underwhelming numbers against this Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been a popular storyline, but that narrative feels a little overblown, and there are a few different paths for him to hit the Over on this rushing yards line.
It starts with punishing the Steelers for overplaying Derrick Henry. Henry was a wrecking ball when these teams met in December, powering for 162 rushing yards, and it’s reasonable to think that the Pittsburgh linebackers will be on even higher alert here. That sets up Jackson to use his legs and call his own number.
Then there’s the Steelers’ pass rush. With T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith on the prowl, Jackson is going to have moments where he’s flushed from the pocket on dropbacks. While that could lead to some negative plays, it also opens the door for Lamar to take off for big yardage.
Pittsburgh has contained those scrambles impressively in the past, and Tomlin knows what he’s up against on Saturday, but I see the Ravens eventually breaking through. Don’t be surprised if Baltimore has a few tricks up its sleeve to unleash Jackson in this one.
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Lamar Jackson same-game parlay
Lamar Jackson Over 48.5 rushing yards
Lamar Jackson Under 216.5 passing yards
Under 43.5
My NFL picks are doubling down on this being a run-heavy game script — even by Baltimore’s standards — by taking the Under on Jackson’s passing yards. He threw for 217 yards in Week 18 but fell short of this total in four of his prior six outings, including both regular season matchups against Pittsburgh.
The Ravens’ passing attack will also be missing big-play target Zay Flowers this weekend. Flowers accounted for 100 of Jackson’s 207 passing yards against the Steelers in Week 16.
Mark Andrews can gobble up targets but likely for smaller gains, while Rashod Bateman blows hot and cold as a deep threat. Baltimore would be wise to load up on the ground game in cold conditions, and Jackson’s biggest learning from prior playoff flops is surely to avoid forcing the issue.
I’m rounding out my SGP with the Under on a line of 43.5. The Pittsburgh offense has been a tough watch lately, with the Steelers failing to score more than 17 points in any of their last four outings, and the Russell Wilson buzz has begun to fizzle out despite George Pickens’ return.
The Under has been a winning ticket in eight of the last nine matchups between these division foes, and a low-scoring scrap is Pittsburgh’s best path to an upset. Though the Ravens peppered the Over this year (13-4), their run game could really chew up the clock here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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