The NFL's eagerly anticipated return is just hours away, and we have you covered with a full slate of NFL picks from our All-Star team of betting analysts. They've dissected reams of data, watched countless hours of film, and pored over the latest NFL odds to bring you their best bets for tonight's marquee matchup between the Detroit Lions and the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs.
Our own Josh Inglis and Rob Paul are both big believers in Lions rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs, while Shawn Wronka is going all-in on reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes, whom he expects to run roughshod over Detroit.
Check out their Lions vs. Chiefs picks below and be sure to read our TNF props and TNF Patrick Mahomes picks for even more insights before kick-off.
Lions vs Chiefs odds
Lions vs Chiefs picks
| Writer | Pick | Sportsbook/Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Josh Inglis |
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 29.5 receiving yards |  (-120) |
 Rob Paul |
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 30.5 receiving yards |  (-110) |
| Rob Paul |
Skyy Moore Over 45.5 Receiving Yards |  (-110) |
| Rob Paul |
Patrick Mahomes Over 285.5 passing yards | (-114) |
 Shawn Wronka |
Patrick Mahomes Over 17.5 rushing yards |  (-115) |
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Covers NFL picks
Josh Inglis: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 29.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetRivers)
The Lions used an early first-rounder on Jahmyr Gibbs and they plan to use him Thursday, especially on passing downs where he excelled in college. The game script lines up perfectly for plenty of targets as a 4.5-point dog and the likely absence of Chris Jones could mean a smaller role in pass protection which usually keeps rookies off the field. OC Ben Johnson is an elite offensive mind while the Chiefs allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to opposing backs last year at 47 per game. It might not take Gibbs long to explode on the NFL scene.
Rob Paul: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 30.5 receiving yards (-110 at Unibet)
Last season, Detroit finished third in the NFL in EPA per dropback thanks to having one of the best offensive lines in the league and a creative play caller in Ben Johnson, who seems to know what he has in Gibbs, an offensive weapon who won’t be locked into a classic running back role. Between Gibbs' pass catching prowess, Johnson’s play-calling, and K.C.'s defense missing its star, expect the former Alabama running back to make a splash.
Rob Paul: Skyy Moore Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at bet365)
As a rookie Skyy Moore had some hiccups with just 22 receptions for 250 yards as he transitioned from the MAC to the NFL. However, Moore has a similar skill set to JuJu Smith-Schuster with his ability to create YAC plays out of the slot. He also brings dynamic route-running ability and 4.41 speed that should help him create separation against a Detroit secondary that’s full of new faces.
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Rob Paul: Patrick Mahomes Over 285.5 passing yards (-114 at Unibet)
Last year, Patrick Mahomes finished first in EPA per play among QBs with at least 400 snaps. He also topped 287 passing yards in 11 of 17 games and in the six games he didn’t, he threw less than 38 passes — his season average per game. With the Lions' offense set to be even better in 2023, and many expecting them to be a contender in the NFC (their NFL win total is 8.5), Mahomes could find himself in a shootout.
Shawn Wronka: Patrick Mahomes Over 17.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Last year, the MVP quarterback averaged 21.1 rushing yards per game, notably above Thursday's number. Even when removing a 63-yard game on the ground, he still averaged 18.4 yards per game. In the case of player props, it's also important to look at medians rather than averages, and last year's numbers came in at 23 rushing ypg. Of course, we need to also factor Travis Kelce's bone bruise which was sustained in Tuesday's practice. If Travis Kelce either doesn't play or is deployed sparingly or just as a decoy, that's one (frequently) open target that Mahomes can no longer rely on. With his options through the air limited, Mahomes may rely on his legs just a bit more in Kansas City's season opener.
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