Jared Goff proved doubters wrong last week as the indoor quarterback took the victory in a wet game at Lambeau Field.
Back indoors and on a fast track, my Lions vs. Texans predictions believe Goff is in store for another big day throwing the football.
Here are my NFL picks for this SNF showdown on Sunday, November 10.
Lions vs Texans SNF prediction
My best bet
Jared Goff Over 232.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Even as a serious MVP candidate, there might be a little hidden value in Jared Goff's passing yard total for Sunday’s indoor affair vs. the Houston Texans.
The easiest one to see is that Goff has had to do very little over the last two weeks which includes a 52-point performance with 85 passing yards and last week’s 145-yard effort outdoors in the rain at Lambeau vs. a good Green Bay passing defense. In the five games before that, the Detroit Lions QB was averaging 278.6 passing yards per game.
Next is the indoor bump that passing gets. Indoor games increase passing volume and efficiency and Goff’s numbers prove that. Over his career, Goff has a completion percentage six points higher indoors vs. outdoors with a QB rating increase of 11 points.
Additionally, Goff will get the services of Jameson Williams back on Sunday after the receiver finishes his two-game suspension. This is a receiver who has gone for 79 or more yards in four of his six games and is a big addition to the indoor offense.
His passing total is the final push for the Over. It currently sits at 232.5 but closed higher in every game except last week’s due to the rain. The median closing total on this prop is 253.5 yards.
He might be an MVP candidate, but there is still value in his passing Over yards this week.
Lions vs Texans SNF same-game parlay
Jared Goff 250+ passing yards
C.J. Stroud 250+ passing yards
Amon-Ra St.Brown anytime TD
Both of these indoor QBs are coming off outdoor games where their passing numbers weren’t close to what their indoor production is. The Lions are the highest-scoring team in football and Houston will have to keep up and that means passing the ball.
Nico Collins might play but I like this without him. Houston has had some extra time to work on the passing game after the TNF loss. On the year, C.J. Stroud has passed for 285, 331, 345, 215, 260, and 234 indoors while averaging a league-high 305 passing yards per game at home.
Amon-Ra St.Brown is currently riding a six-game TD streak while totaling just 63 receiving yards over the last two weeks. Having Jameson Williams back should also give the WR1 some more room to operate Sunday night.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Lions vs Texans odds
Lions vs Texans live odds
Lions vs Texans opening odds
- Spread: Detroit -2.5 | Houston +2.5
- Moneyline: Detroit -140 | Houston +120
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Lions vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Houston performance in Week 9 vs. the Jets did not help them keep this spread on their side of the 3. It was hanging around 2.5/3 heading into the Week 9 weekend and then reopened at 4.5.
- Nico Collins has been designated to return to practice on Friday. That still leaves him a lot of work to be ready for Sunday night. Some reports are calling it 50/50 but I'd be very surprised if he suited up. The line could move to a flat 3 if he does with the Over moving.
- The return of Jameson Williams will boost this Detroit passing game as the WR2 had hit 79 or more yards in four of his six games before his two-game suspension.
- The Texans currently have five defensive starters questionable and enter Week 10 with serious depth concerns on the O-line.
Lions vs Texans betting trend to know
The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.30 Units / 43% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Texans.
Lions vs Texans game info
| Location: | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-10, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Lions vs Texans latest injuries
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