Mac Jones Odds and Props: Jones Can't Come Through Against Colts

This Sunday serves up our final game in Europe of the NFL season with the second of two contests in Germany. The Colts and Patriots are meeting in Frankfurt in Week 10, with the Pats considered the home team while sitting as 1.5-point underdogs in the NFL odds. 

We’re going to have a deep dive into Patriots’ QB Mac Jones this week. Let’s discuss the best ways to bet on Mac Jones odds for the final Germany game with our free NFL picks for Week 10.

You can also check out our Colts vs. Patriots picks for a full matchup breakdown, and Colts vs. Patriots player prop picks for more player-based wagers.

Mac Jones prop picks

• Mac Jones Under 223.5 passing yards
• Jones u223.5 pass yards/Stevenson o48.5 rush yards/Stevenson anytime TD

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Mac Jones Week 10 prop pick

Mac Jones Under 223.5 passing yards (-114)

The fans in Frankfurt were treated to a spectacle last week with two great quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes facing off against Tua Tagovailoa. The fans in the Waldstadion won’t be quite so lucky this week with Mac Jones and Gardner Minshew squaring off. That said, it’s still going to be interesting, and I believe that there’s money to be made on fading Mac Jones.

It's been a poor season for Jones so far, as he’s thrown just 10 touchdowns and has been picked off nine times. His passer rating is just a shade over 80. There are reports that the Patriots are ready to move on from the former Alabama man in the offseason, and in truth, you can’t really blame them. It’s partly because of his failures to develop as a passer that we’re betting on Under 223.5 passing yards for the man picked 15th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Some bookies are offering marginally lower lines, but I’d take this bet down to 220.5. Jones has only hit the Over on 223.5 on three occasions this season, or just 33% of his games. What is more concerning for Patriots fans is that two of those were in the first two weeks of the season, and the last time he hit this number was in that shock victory over the Bills in Week 7.

Last week saw Jones struggle against the Commanders, a team who traded away the players best capable of pressuring him, and he still only managed one touchdown and a passer rating of 66.5, connecting on barely over 50% of his passes.

The Patriots are right to be concerned about Jones, and I think he’s going to have a poor game. You could point to the Colts allowing QBs an average of 250.7 passing yards per game, but Jones is well below average and the Colts’ defense looked to have turned a corner against Bryce Young’s Carolina Panthers last week.

Prop: Mac Jones Under 223.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Mac Jones Week 10 same-game parlay

Mac Jones Under 221.5 passing yards

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 48.5 rushing yards

Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD

+625 at bet365

I'm going for a +625 bet which focuses on Jones’ failures in the passing game.

Under 221.5 passing yards is the line being offered for this SGP instead of 223.5 in the best bet, but I’m still very happy with that.

With the passing game unlikely to get going, I’m backing Rhamondre Stevenson to have Over 48.5 rushing yards. This Indy defense is allowing an average of 125.6 yards on the ground each week, and it’s Stevenson who is most likely to get the bulk of the work this Sunday. With Jones struggling, I think we’re likely to see plenty of the young RB.

Finally, we’ll be backing Stevenson to find the end zone. I don’t feel overly confident about Jones in the red zone, and I think the team will look to use Stevenson’s abilities on the ground should they get close to the goal line.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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