Matthew Stafford Odds and TNF Props: Stafford Slings It Against the Saints

In a wide open NFC playoff race, the Los Angeles Rams have been surging in recent weeks and since the return of Matthew Stafford from injury, Sean McVay’s team has gone 4-1 in its last five heading into the Week 16 odds opener.

However, now Stafford & Co. will have to deal with a New Orleans Saints defense that’s been one of the best in the league this season and is equally hungry for a playoff berth.

You can see how I’m betting on Matthew Stafford's odds as I dive into the TNF odds to bring you my free NFL picks below.

For more TNF coverage, check our Saints vs. Rams predictions and our best TNF prop bets! 

Matthew Stafford TNF prop picks

• Stafford Over 247.5 passing yds
• Stafford Over 247.5 pass yds/Kupp Over 6.5 rec/Nacua Over 63.5 rec yds

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Matthew Stafford TNF prop pick

Over 247.5 passing yards (-110)

While the New Orleans Saints haven’t been a better than average team this season and have taken advantage of an easier schedule, Dennis Allen’s defense has been undoubtedly good.

It’s ranked third in EPA per play, seventh in EPA per dropback, and eighth in EPA per rush. It’s also held opposing offenses to just 311.9 yards per game — 11th least in the league — and kept opposing quarterbacks at bay by holding them to only 185.4 passing yards per game.

It’s not an easy matchup for Stafford, but the Saints schedule has been a huge help as to why the defense has smothered opponents. The QB play opposite New Orleans has rarely tested the secondary and the pass rush has beaten up on some of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

In the Saints seven wins this season, the opposing starting QBs have been Bryce Young twice, Ryan Tannehill, Mac Jones, Gardner Minshew, Tyson Bagent, and Tommy DeVito. That’s four wins against rookies with two of them being undrafted, two wins against signal callers who have since been benched, and one against a backup.

However, in losses they played much more consistent quarterbacks like Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, CJ Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, and Jared Goff (plus Joshua Dobbs and Desmond Ridder).

So on one hand, the stats say New Orleans has a top defense in the NFL, but on the other, there’s an argument to be made the unit are bad quarterback merchants. And, Stafford certainly isn’t bad. He’s been on a tear lately and is reminding fans around the NFL age is just a number.

At 35 years old, he has a Los Angeles Rams team many thought would be contending for the No. 1 pick in the thick of the playoff race, and he's on pace for 4,031 passing yards and 26 TD passes. On the season he’s been slightly inconsistent ranking 12th in EPA per play among QBs, 20th in success rate, and 30th in CPOE. But, since missing Week 9 with a UCL sprain in his right thumb, he’s been phenomenal.

He returned in Week 11 after the bye and over his last five games, he’s sixth in EPA per play, seventh in success rate, and ninth in CPOE. It hasn’t just been layup opponents either as he’s played the Ravens and Browns in that span — the number one and two defense in EPA per play this season.

On the season, he’s averaging 255.4 passing yards per game and has thrown for at least 248 yards in seven of 13 games, including in each of his last three. His stretch of play since Week 12 has been among the best of his career and over that four game stretch he’s averaged 265 passing yards per game while adding 12 touchdown passes.

Behind a Rams' offensive line that’s held up this season and allowed just 26 sacks — tied for third least in the league — Stafford has been able to stay in rhythm and dissect defenses.

His hot streak over his last four games also coincides with the return of Kyren Williams. Williams has averaged 124.2 rushing yards per game since Week 12 and that rushing attack has forced defenses to stay honest.

Prop: Over 247.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Matthew Stafford TNF same-game parlay

Matthew Stafford Over 247.5

Cooper Kupp Over 6.5 receptions

Puka Nacua Over 63.5 receiving yards

+500 at bet365

Everything has been clicking for Stafford and the Rams offense since Week 12. L.A.’s franchise quarterback is playing some of the best ball of his life, Williams is running wild on defenses behind a powerful offensive line, Puka Nacua continues to add to his historic rookie campaign, and Cooper Kupp is starting to look like the guy who won Offensive Player of the Year two years ago.

If Stafford is going to continue to cook, both Kupp and Nacua will be a major part of his performance. While the Saints have a strong secondary, it’s still missing four-time Pro Bowler Marshon Lattimore, who isn’t expected back until next week at the earliest.

That should have the savvy Kupp licking his lips ready to continue his fantastic play. On the season, the former third-round pick is averaging 4.9 receptions per game on 7.7 targets. He’s cleared 6.5 receptions four times in 10 games, including in both of his last two outings.

Since Stafford began playing at an MVP-level four weeks ago, Kupp has been averaging 6.25 and 70.7 receiving yards per game. He’s been looking better and better with each outing too, with those averages jumping up to eight receptions for 113 yards in his last two games.

Nacua has helped alleviate pressure on Kupp this season too with the rookie phenom averaging 83 receiving yards per game and having at least 64 in nine of 14 games.

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