Best NFL Milestone Bets for Wild Card: Kyren Williams Leads the Way on Sunday

100-plus rushing yards

Since returning from injury, Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams has hit the 100-yard mark on the ground in four of six games and has touched 87 yards rushing each time. Over that stretch, he has 5.3 yards per carry and 3.5 yards before contact, which is one of the best rates in football. 

This giant piece of the LA offense is currently +200 for 100 rushing yards, which is my favorite Milestone of the Wild Card week, and worth another 0.33 units for 125 rushing yards at +500.

He is going to get 20 carries as he has done in five straight games before he sat out Week 18. It’s an indoor game, which is always faster, and a setting where he is averaging 5.4 yards per carry compared to 4.16 outdoors. 

The Detroit Lions defense has been brutal down the stretch ranking 28th in EPA/play since Week 11 and although a lot of that damage has been done in the air, this balanced LA offense will move the ball well, leading to more rush opportunities for an RB who gets the majority of the carries. 

His rushing total is 80.5 this week yet closed at 92.5 just two games ago. This is a ladder spot if I’ve ever seen one. 

Kyren Williams prop: 100-plus rushing yards (+200 at bet365)

300-plus passing yards 

There is a great opportunity for Jordan Love and this Green Bay Packers passing game to get a lot of garbage time work this weekend and I am here for it.

His passing yards prop is sitting at 242.5 yards, which is around the same number as it was last week as a 3-point favorite outdoors. Now, he is a touchdown underdog indoors vs. a pass defense that ranks 26th in success rate since Week 11 and the number hasn’t been adjusted at all. 

The potential with a possible negative game script and the indoor setting should have this number higher. Now, add in the possible return of all his receivers, this could be the best passing matchup — at least from an output standpoint — he has seen this year. 

This is an elimination game and even if Green Bay is trailing by 20 entering the fourth quarter, Love is going to have to air it out. These situations might not be fully priced in here and I would love some garbage time from a QB who threw for 300-plus yards last week and is one of the most aggressive throwers in football. 

His 300-yard Milestone is a healthy +350 and one that is in the account early. 

Jordan Love prop: 300-plus passing yards (+350 at bet365)

100-plus receiving yards

Covers’ premium projections are projecting 107 yards from Houston Texans receiver Nico Collins this weekend vs. the Cleveland Browns. THE BLITZ is projecting Collins for 93.4 receiving yards in the Wild Card opener. His current receiving yard total is at 73.5 while his 100-plus yards is paying +230 and is a full-unit play for me. This one looks tasty.

⭐️ 5-STAR PROP PROJECTION ⭐️

Nico Collins' receiving prop is set as low as 73.5 yards but is projected for 107 yards.

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Tank Dell is on IR and Noah Brown might not be 100% with a back injury that has cost him some time. That means bettors will see plenty of CJ Stroud to Collins in a perfect indoor matchup vs. a defense that allows the most points on the road at 29.6 per game. 

Collins has hit the century mark in three of his last six games and is coming off a season-high 195 yards last week in another indoor game vs. Indy. Over the last six games with Stroud as his QB, he is averaging 108 yards per game. 

His indoor vs. outdoor splits are pretty hard to ignore, as well. Outside, the receiver is putting up just 39.3 yards per game (four games) while that number explodes to 103.6 yards per game indoors. Again, his 100 receiving yards prop is +230.

Defensively, it’s a great matchup for the Houston passing game. As of Thursday, three starters in the secondary including both corners were questionable for the Browns. It’s a defense that has played in some poor conditions at home but has been exposed on the road and indoors. 

Collins had just 18 yards vs. the Browns at home in Week 16, but he was without Stroud, and the WR was just coming back from an injury. He’s good to go this week and is closer to a coin flip for 100 yards. 

Nico Collins prop: 100-plus receiving yards (+230 at bet365)