The Kansas City Chiefs, the NFL's lone unbeaten team, will host the beat-up Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football at Arrowhead Stadium.
I’ve pinpointed the best Patrick Mahomes odds for primetime and will explain why my NFL picks are banking on the Chiefs superstar to have a big day through the air against the Bucs on home soil.
Patrick Mahomes Monday Night Football player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 247.5 passing yards
(-113 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Mahomes Over 247.5 passing yards
Mahomes Over 22.5 completions
Travis Kelce Over 60.5 receiving yards
(+567 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Patrick Mahomes Monday Night Football prop pick
My best bet
Over 247.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Kansas City Chiefs are rolling with a perfect 7-0 record and Patrick Mahomes is a big reason. Despite a depleted WR room, Mahomes has done the best with what he has. Although the QB has thrown more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (8), you cannot ignore his efficiency.
Mahomes has completed 68.4% of his passes for 1,651 yards and just became the fastest player in NFL history to reach 30,000 passing yards last weekend, completing the feat in only 130 games. In the victory over the Raiders, he completed 27 of 38 passes for 262 yards.
In fact, he’s hit the Over in passing yards in two of the last three contests, also throwing for 331 in Week 6 against the Saints. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers happen to have a terrible pass defense, ranking 29th in the NFL with 255.4 yards allowed per game.
Patrick Mahomes Monday Night Football same-game parlay
Mahomes Over 247.5 passing yards
Mahomes Over 22.5 completions
Kelce Over 60.5 receiving yards
Travis Kelce has always been an important target for Mahomes and it’s been no different in ‘24. He’s reeled in a team-high 38 receptions for 335 yards and one touchdown. DeAndre Hopkins should help, but Kelce will still be the top option for his quarterback.
The last few games have been impressive for the veteran tight end in terms of yardage. He had 10 catches for 90 yards in Week 8 and has hit the Over in receiving yards in three of the last four games, posting 70 yards against the Saints and 89 against the Chargers.
Again, the Bucs do not defend the pass well. Sure, they will try to keep Kelce contained and maybe they will to a certain extent, but the numbers point to him at least surpassing the Over 60.5 receiving yards threshold. He’s hot as of late.
As previously mentioned, Mahomes is completing nearly 70% of his throws. In total, he’s averaging 22 completions per game this season. However, he’s hit the Over in two of the previous three contests, going 27 for 38 in Week 8 and 28 for 39 in Week 6.
Tampa Bay’s run defense is better than their pass defense and Mahomes is thriving with the football in his hands right now. Hitting the Over again doesn’t seem unrealistic for the three-time Super Bowl MVP, especially considering he’s playing at Arrowhead Stadium with the home atmosphere behind him.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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