Best NFL Milestone Bets for Week 11: Collins Torches Arizona's Weak Secondary

25+ receiving yards

I’m not getting greedy with this one and hitting a 25+ receiving yard prop that’s paying out at +130.

Las Vegas Raiders tight end Michael Mayer played 87% of the snaps last week and had a 60% route share. The rookie finished with 10 more routes than Austin Hooper and had five targets that he turned into three catches for 19 yards and a TD. THE BLITZ is projecting 28.80 yards for Mayer in Week 11, and as a healthy 14-point dog, the game script is certainly in his favor. 

While Mayer's route share is keeping me off his 50+ yards milestone at +450, 25+ looks like one of the best +EV milestone plays from projections. 

Opposing TEs are averaging 5.8 receptions and 57.7 yards per game vs. the Miami Dolphins, and thanks to an 18.5 receiving total, this modest milestone and its +130 odds could be a quick winner. With a potential blowout also expected in favor of Miami, there should be plenty of time for garbage time receptions on Mayer's end. 

Michael Mayer prop: 25-plus receiving yards (+130 at bet365)

100+ rushing and receiving yards

Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell indicated that Jahmyr Gibbs would have an expanded role, even upon David Montgomery's return. After Gibbs logged 14 carries and received five targets last week compared to Monty's 12 carries and zero targets, bettors are finding reason to take Campbell at his word.

This week, the Lions play host to the Chicago Bears in an indoor setting, and Gibbs should see another 17-20 touches with plenty of positive game script as a 7.5-point favorite. Following last week’s 100-yard game, I don’t see why hitting the century mark (total yards) at +330 is a bad idea. 

Gibbs can bust big gains better than most and currently has eight carries of 15-plus yards, which ranks him third in the league in that category. Only four running backs have tallied more 20-yard rushes than Gibbs (who has five), and most of those other RBs have seen many more carries. The Alabama product also has 17 catches for 130 receiving yards over his last three games.

The Bears could also be thin at linebacker as Tremaine Edmunds and Jack Sanborn are very questionable, while rookie Noah Sewell has been ruled out. The setting, game script, matchup, and current form/opportunities are all pointing to another big game from the rookie. 

Jahmyr Gibbs prop: 100-plus rushing and receiving yards (+330 at bet365)

75+ receiving yards

There are likely some extra targets to go around on Sunday for the Houston Texans, as wideout Noah Brown hasn’t practiced this week and is doubtful for Sunday. Brown has racked up 225 yards on 17 targets over the last two weeks and that volume will likely go somewhere else when the Texans face a very weak Arizona Cardinals secondary that ranks 31st in success rate vs. the pass. 

While Nico Collins and Tank Dell have identical 55.5-yard receiving totals, it’s Collins that I’m leaning on this weekend. 

The Houston receiver enters this week with no injury designation after missing last week. Collins had at least 80 yards in four of his six games before the bye and it could be assumed that his knee injury has slowed down his production of late. This was a WR getting nine targets a game before his quarterback went nuclear. 

C.J. Stroud has thrown for over 800 yards over the last two weeks and now faces arguably his best matchup of the season against Arizona. With Kyler Murray back for the Cards, that should also keep this game closer and the game script more neutral, resulting in the Texans continuing to pass. 

Considering Brown's probable absence, Collins' improved health, the overall setting, and the matchup, a 75-yard game appears favorable at +215. Additionally, I'm placing 0.35 units on his 100+ yards milestone at +575.

Nico Collins prop: 75-plus receiving yards (+215 at bet365)