Week 18 is a minefield with all the teams resting players and usage unknown, but that’s a perfect time to hit some plus-money milestone NFL prop picks. When variance is high, get on the long NFL odds, that’s what I always say.
I’m finishing up the regular season with a WR3 that's getting more routes thanks to an increase in 11-personnel, hitting a safe-floor tight end for 50-plus yards, and betting on a gunslinger indoors.
These are my best milestone NFL picks for Sunday’s games.
Week 18 milestone picks
- Khalil Shakir 50+ receiving yards (+350 at bet365)
- Khalil Shakir 4+ receptions (+375 at bet365)
- Jake Ferguson 50+ receiving yards (+200 at bet365)
- Nick Mullens 300+ passing yards (+250 at bet365)
Picks made on January 6 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best Week 18 milestone bets
50+ receiving yards and 4+ receptions
The Buffalo Bills have been mixing up their personnel of late. They were running 3-WR sets at just 35% in Week 15 but have bumped that up substantially over the last two weeks with a 74% rate last week.
When Buffalo goes three wide, that means Khalil Shakir is on the field, and because of the inconsistent snaps, there's some value this week if the personnel trend continues.
The Buffalo No. 3 had a 74% route share last week and gets a good matchup this week on the road in Miami with good weather. He was second among WRs in targets and receptions last week with four and led the group with 39 yards in a modest passing game from Josh Allen.
Shakir’s receiving total is 24.5 yards, which is just one yard up from his closing line last week and well short of his 32.5-yard average from Weeks 7 to 14. He’s +350 to go for 50 yards but I also think there's value in his receptions where 4+ catches is paying +375 and a number he's hit in 40% of his last 10 games.
Starting corner Xavien Howard is out for the Miami Dolphins, meaning it’s Eli Apple time for a defense that already gave up 320 passing yards to Allen this year and allows the sixth-most receptions to opposing receivers.
I like both the 50+ yards and the 4+ catches and am splitting a full unit between both plays.
Khalil Shakir props: 50+ receiving yards (+350 at bet365, 0.5u), 4+ receptions (+375, 0.5u)
50+ receiving yards
Jake Ferguson has a great matchup this week vs. the Washington Commanders, who are the worst pass defense in all of football. They need to win to capture the No. 2 seed but already beat Washington 45-10 on Thanksgiving.
That was a game in which Ferguson had 35 yards on one catch but since then, in a span of five games, the tight end has 25 catches on 38 targets, 271 yards, and at least four grabs in each game. He had a 90% route share last week and his 17% target share is a decent number, especially with CeeDee Lamb putting up massive numbers.
Lamb might not see the entire game if the boys get up big and THE BLITZ is projecting 49.4 receiving yards for the TE who has a receiving total of 36.5. His reception total is heavily juiced to the Over 3.5, making an implied reception total well over 4.0.
There will be some wind (13 mph) but it looks dry and a decent setting for Ferguson to hit the 50-yard mark after getting at least 44 yards in four of his last five contests. Before last week, he had seen 8+ targets in four straight weeks.
To get his 50+ receiving yards at +200 in a great matchup that THE BLITZ has priced closer to -115 is a steal. His role has a safe floor and with the uncertainty of Week 18, that’s something hard to find and worth a bet.
Jake Ferguson prop: 50+ receiving yards (+200 at bet365)
300+ passing yards
Nick Mullens will be back under center indoors for the Minnesota Vikings this week vs. the Detroit Lions and that means one more ride on his 300+ passing yards at +250. This has hit in both of his starts this year including 400 yards just two games ago against these same Lions.
After the Jaren Hall debacle last week, it’s safe to say that Mullens will have a long leash in Week 18. He'll face the Detroit starters which might not sound great, but a negative game script always leads to more passing.
Mullens has all his wide receivers healthy here and although he has some injuries on his offensive line, that could lead to more passing with the run game likely stalling out.
The starting QB is a reckless passer but that has helped him gain big yards. His 8.8 yards per pass attempt would rank second in the league behind Brock Purdy if he qualified and he finished with 15.5 average intended air yards per pass in Week 16 vs. Detroit which easily paced all QBs that week. It also ranked as the highest rate of any QB in any week this season.
It’s time to watch the gunslinger indoors one more time this year and profit at +250 in the process. He might make some wild throws, but that only helps this play.
Nick Mullens prop: 300+ passing yards (+250 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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