NFL MVP Odds: Joe Burrow Tunnels Way Back Into Conversation

Bengals QB Joe Burrow is trying his damndest to drag Cincinnati kicking and screaming into the playoffs, and it's brought him back into the NFL MVP odds conversation. Josh Allen still has a healthy lead, but Burrow isn't dead yet.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Dec 29, 2024 • 17:39 ET • 4 min read
Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals NFL
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Huge Week 17 performances from Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson and Cincinnati Bengals signal-caller Joe Burrow have narrowed Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen's NFL MVP odds.

Allen is still a comfortable betting favorite, but Jackson has closed the gap, and Burrow has re-emerged in the NFL MVP odds conversation. 

What will it take to overcome Allen? Is it even possible? Read on as I take a closer look at the NFL MVP odds as we head into Week 18.

NFL MVP odds

Player DraftKings
49ers Josh Allen -320
Ravens Lamar Jackson +240
Bengals Joe Burrow  +1500
Eagles Saquon Barkley +2200
Lions Jared Goff +7000
Vikings Sam Darnold +10000
Buccaneers Baker Mayfield +15000
Chiefs Patrick Mahomes +15000

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen saw his MVP odds narrow and is a slim favorite (-320) to win the NFL MVP.

Allen and the Bills buried the NY Jets 40-8 behind a pair of Allen scoring strikes and one rushing touchdown. 

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (+240) led Baltimore to a stunning 31-2 road victory over the Houston Texans and could overtake the Bills star with a big Week 18 game against the Cleveland Browns.

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow made the biggest leap (+1500) after chucking three touchdown passes in a thrilling home victory over the Denver Broncos to keep their season alive. 

Joe Burrow season to date

Burrow opened the season as the third favorite. A 4-8 start dashed the public's MVP hopes in the star quarterback, but his exploits on Saturday against Denver have them again eyeing the Bengals signal-caller.

Despite 44 sacks and an injury-riddled offense, Burrow leads the NFL with career-bests in passing yards (4,641) and scoring strikes (42). 

Burrow has slung 3+ touchdown passes in each of his last eight games and 4+ TDs thrice this season. He’s also scampered for a pair of touchdowns on a career-best 4.8 yards per attempt. 

Looking ahead

If anything, Burrow finding his way into the MVP hunt makes Week 18 interesting.

Burrow spoiling his AFC rivals' MVP hopes would need to include a big Week 18 in a must-win game at the Pittsburgh Steelers.

He would also need Week 18 victories by the New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs for the Bengals to reach the playoffs.

Burrow is 3-3 with 14 scoring strikes and nine interceptions across six career starts against Pittsburgh. He’s also been sacked 19 times by the Steelers, including four times in a Week 13 home loss.

Burrow threw three TD passes in that 44-38 loss, and he’ll need that type of video-game-like scoring environment and a victory at Steel City to win his first NFL MVP Award. 

Cincy also needs one loss by the Miami Dolphins and for Denver to lose vs. Kansas City to reach the playoffs. It's a long, winding road, but stranger things have happened.

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Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu Greece. He’s the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the tennis betting podcast, This Week in Tennis.

Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications including SB Nation, FanSided and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports. Phil curates the Chip and Charge Tennis Newsletter and pens a weekly tennis column called “10 Things About the ATP Tour," for Passing Shot Productions. 

His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro men’s and women’s hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.

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