NFL Draft 2023 Position Props: Where Will Anthony Richardson, Paris Johnson and Others Be Selected?

The NFL Draft takes place tomorrow, meaning rumors are flying and draft projections are moving everywhere. Although there are a surplus of NFL Draft odds to sift through, one of the most intriguing prop betting markets is the Over/Under on a player's draft position.

Instead of worrying about team needs, trades, and exactly where a player will be taken, you simply choose the Over or Under on a player's estimated pick position — with the Over implying a higher number and therefore later in the draft. We focus on some of the biggest names (and biggest movers) in the draft with our best bets for the 2023 NFL Draft on April 27. 

Be sure also to check out if you live in a state where you can legally bet on the NFL Draft!

Anthony Richardson draft position

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 26, 2023.

Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson is the prototypical high-ceiling, low-floor prospect who could just as easily be a bust or turn into the best player from this class. At 6-foot-4, 244 pounds with a cannon for an arm, a 4.43 forty-yard dash, and a 40.5-inch vertical, his athleticism is so out of this world that he described himself as an alien. 

However, Richardson also started just 13 games in his college career and had a paltry 53.8 completion percentage last year. While that low accuracy is partially due to his tendency to attack downfield, he also had a grade of just 33.8 on short passes (fewer than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage) according to PFF.

The Over/Under on Richardson's draft position was set at 4.5 for the last few days but was heavily juiced towards the Over at around -300. Books have finally moved off that number and shifted it to 7.5 where it sits at even odds. 

As tantalizing a prospect as Richardson is, he isn't anywhere near as refined or NFL ready as passers like Bryce Young, Will Levis, and C.J. Stroud. The franchises that want a QB in the Top 7 will be locked on to those players while teams like Houston, Arizona, Seattle, and Detroit seem more focused on other positions. Unless someone else trades into the Top 7 targeting Richardson, I see him dropping past this spot. 

Pick: Anthony Richardson draft position Over 7.5 (-115)

Paris Johnson draft position

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 26, 2023.

It might seem a bit silly that Johnson is now installed as the favorite to go third overall because of reports that Cardinals franchise quarterback Kyler Murray wants him. However, it's less absurd than an anonymous Reddit user sending Will Levis' stock soaring on Tuesday. 

With Northwestern's Peter Skoronski's arm length measuring just 32 1/4 inches, there are questions about whether he fits better at guard, vaulting Johnson to the top of the board at offensive tackle.

Johnson is a legitimate left tackle prospect that has the size, production, and athleticism that teams covet in a blindside protector. He might not go as high as No. 3, but the Cardinals could trade down and snag him and there's a host of other teams drafting high (cough, cough, Bears) who also need help protecting their QB. The Under 9.5 seems like almost a sure thing here but the juice is high at -270, so I'm staying away. 

Pick: Paris Johnson draft position Under 9.5 (-270)

Jalen Carter draft position

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 26, 2023.

Currently, Carter is the odds-on favorite to go fifth overall to the Seahawks at -110. The defensive tackle was a monster on Georgia's historically dominant defense and was even projected to go first overall to the Bears at one point in the draft process. 

However, his offseason has been catastrophic. In March, he pleaded no contest to misdemeanor charges of reckless driving and racing in an incident that resulted in the deaths of two others. After skipping workouts at the combine, he showed up nine pounds heavier at UGA's pro day (23 pounds more than what he was listed at Georgia), looked out of shape, and was unable to finish drills due to cramping. 

The tape says that Carter is an elite defender but we've seen too many unmotivated defensive tackle prospects bust to still consider him a Top 6 lock. Sure, Seattle seems like a likely destination for a top defensive lineman, but would likely be happier with edge rushers Tyree Wilson or Will Anderson.

Richardson is a possibility for the Seahawks as well with Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk reporting that "there's chatter in league circles" that they could take the athletic QB with the fifth pick. 

Carter is also a good positional fit in Detroit at No. 6, but the odds favor the Lions going with a corner instead. I think that workout debacle will cause Carter to drop further than expected and I like the Over 6.5 at plus money here. 

Pick: Jalen Carter draft position Over 6.5 (+225)

Christian Gonzalez draft position

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 26, 2023.

Gonzalez is a stud with his coveted size and cover skills that teams are looking for in a shutdown corner. With the league more pass happy than ever, elite defensive backs are in high demand and the Oregon product fits the bill. 

The Lions look poised to select a corner after trading away 2020 third-overall selection Jeffrey Okudah (and no Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley coming off a torn ACL aren't going to cut it). While the odds favor them taking Illinois' Devon Witherspoon instead, Gonzalez is a strong possibility as well. 

The Raiders are supposedly also enamored with both Witherspoon and Gonzalez, and they definitely need a lockdown corner playing in the same division as Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert. I don't see Gonzalez falling past No. 7, and being able to take the Under 8.5 gives you a little bit of extra cushion. 

Pick: Christian Gonzalez draft position Under 8.5 (-120)

Dalton Kincaid draft position

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 26, 2023.

Kincaid was viewed as the consensus No. 1 tight end at the end of the college football regular season but has been leapfrogged by Notre Dame's Michael Mayer (-200 to be the first TE taken). Frankly, neither are the athletic specimens of a TE that typically gets selected highly in the draft. 

Mayer is the better blocker, and while Kincaid runs better routes, I'm not convinced that he's the type of guy that goes in the Top 25 — especially with teams employing tight ends in vastly different ways. Kincaid was ultra-productive at Utah but he benefited from playing in a system that feeds the ball to TEs. 

He isn't particularly big or strong and has average speed and explosiveness. Kincaid certainly wasn't able to answer any questions about his lack of athleticism at Utah's pro day since he didn't participate due to a back injury suffered at the end of the season. With quite a few question marks surrounding Kincaid, I see him dropping past No. 24. 

Pick: Dalton Kincaid draft position Over 24.5 (-130)

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