NFL Draft props are the biggest thing in sports betting with all major leagues and events shut down. Odds on the 2020 NFL Draft have been taking action since early March and the betting is heating up with the first round starting this Thursday. **video
We look at which NFL Draft odds have been the most popular picks, required the biggest line moves, and drawn the sharp bets, with insights from sportsbooks across North America.
Sharp NFL Draft bets
Oddsmakers almost universally agree that NFL Draft betting is a wiseguy market - even more so this year - with several Nevada books unable to get new customers (state regulations require in-person registration) and some operators not having remote account funding options.
“There is no public action currently, given the state of the pandemic,” said Jeff Davis, director of trading at Caesars books. “Every single dollar that is bet on the NFL Draft is sharp. I could go on forever.”
But Davis kept it short. On the prop of whether Clemson draft prospect Tee Higgins will go in the first round, “Yes” opened -650 and “No” +450. Sharp action flipped that to No -155/Yes +125.
“Fair to say that my pricing on Tee Higgins was not some of my finest work,” Davis said.
At PointsBet USA, another wideout prop has drawn wiseguy wagers: the number of wide receivers selected in the first round.
“Lots of sharp action on Over 5.5, which has been bet from +225 to -223,” Patrick Eichner of PointsBet said, “Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs and Justin Jefferson all seem to be a lock, but the sharps are feeling that another two wide receivers from this year’s elite group will sneak their way into the end of the first round.”
Wide receiver props seem to be the flavor of the day for sharp bettors, with two such offerings – both on Alabama’s Henry Ruggs – drawing wiseguy money at Canadian-based online book Sports Interaction. Ruggs as the first wideout off the board tightened from 7/1 to 2/1, while his overall draft position moved from 19.5 to 12.5.
Most popular NFL Draft bets
As with pretty much everything else, the COVID-19 shutdown did a number on NFL Draft prop betting, limiting potential newcomers and regular casual bettors. But Eichner, director of communications for PointsBet USA, said public bettors are still involved, taking shots on a couple of props.
Most notably, in the New Jersey market, there’s a lot of interest in the New York Giants’ first pick, with an Alabama draft prospect on the move.
“Plenty of action to report on this market,” Eichner said. “Over the last week, we’ve seen Jedrick Wills move from +800 into -115.”
The Alabama offensive tackle is now the favorite to be drafted by the Giants, followed by Iowa offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs, who moved from 5/1 to +275. At Sports Interaction, head of trading Phill Gray said Wirfs’ Over/Under draft position of 8.5 is seeing one-sided action, moving from Under -120 to Under -185, with bettors expecting the Hawkeye to go early.
“We haven’t had a bet on the Over yet,” Gray said, while also pointing to a popular public play on Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. “Tua going to the Patriots opened 100/1 and is now 15/1. His (overall) draft Over/Under number is off the board, with injury concerns and some mock drafts listing him in the 20s.”
Biggest NFL Draft line moves
With NFL Draft prop odds the biggest betting game in town, several offerings saw significant movement over the past month. Most notably at PointsBet was a shift on Auburn draft prospect Derrick Brown, a defensive tackle.
“Rumors of the Detroit Lions loving Derrick Brown have moved the market for him to go top five quite considerably,” Eichner said, alluding to the Lions holding the third overall pick. “Brown’s odds once stood at +750 and are now into +400. This year’s draft seems to be more of a guess than ever before, so there’s still plenty of value at +400 for those who believe the Lions-Brown hype.”
Quarterback props are always popular in the NFL Draft, including one big mover at Caesars books involving who comes off the board first: Oregon draft prospect Justin Herbert or Utah State draft prospect Jordan Love. Herbert opened a -220 favorite, with Love at +180, and the Oregon QB is now a hefty -750 chalk, with Love at +500.
“Herbert’s stock has continued to rise over the last few months. This prop figures to be a loser for us,” Davis said.
