The New England Patriots face off against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the London finale on Sunday. Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. ET at Wembley Stadium with the game airing on NFL Network.
Both teams enter with identical 1-5 records, and my Patriots vs Jaguars predictions expect a low-scoring game. Here are my best free NFL picks for this showdown on October 20.
Patriots vs Jaguars prediction
My best bet
Under 42 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Drake Maye impressed in his NFL debut last week but this is a really tough spot for the rookie QB, who will be playing in an international game in what could be less than ideal conditions.
There's a 77% chance of showers with sustained winds above 15 mph, although wind might not play a big factor due to the enclosed sides and partial roof at Wembley Stadium.
Even if the wind doesn't have much impact, the slick surface could impede playmakers on both sides, and the New England Patriots don't have many to begin with.
The Pats sit tied for last in the league in scoring (13.9 ppg) and 30th in EPA/play. Even though Maye gives the passing game a boost, there's only so much he can do with the league's worst line and WR corps.
The Jacksonville Jaguars haven't been much better on offense, ranking 23rd in dropback EPA. With the exception of a 37-point explosion against a terrible Colts defense, they've failed to score more than 20 points in their other five games.
These defenses have also been significantly better against the run than the pass, with Jacksonville eighth in the league in defensive rush success rate and New England 11th.
When you also consider the Pats' banged-up offensive line is 29th in the league in run block win rate while the Jags are 25th, and both starting running backs are banged-up, these sides will have problems moving the chains if their passing attacks are neutered.
Patriots vs Jaguars same-game parlay
Under 42
Jaguars moneyline
Drake Maye Over 24.5 rushing yards
I can't get behind laying six points on a 1-5 Jaguars team awful on defense. That said, they're more talented at almost every position when compared to the Pats. With their familiarity playing in London, the support of the local NFL fanbase, and the fact they made the trip last week, they should win outright.
Maye didn't just impress with his arm last week; he also showed athleticism by scrambling for 38 yards on five carries. The Patriots are second-last in the league in pressure rate allowed (30.8%) which should lead to plenty of situations where Maye takes off when the pocket breaks down.
The Jags allowed more than 40 rushing yards to Caleb Williams and Josh Allen, and even the plodding, 39-year-old Joe Flacco had a 21-yard scamper against them in Week 5.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Patriots vs Jaguars odds
Patriots vs Jaguars live odds
Patriots vs Jaguars opening odds
- Spread: New England +5.5 | Jacksonville -5.5
- Moneyline: New England +175 | Jacksonville -210
- Over/Under: Over 43 | Under 43
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Patriots vs Jaguars spread and Over/Under analysis
- The total was 39.5 on the lookahead line but opened at 43 this week before questions about the impact of weather brought it down to 42.
- The Pats are 0-5 straight up and 0-4-1 against the spread in their previous five games, while the Jags are 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS in their last 12.
- Maye went 20 of 33 for 243 yards with three TDs and two picks against Houston last week and faces a Jacksonville defense 32nd in dropback EPA.
- The Jaguars have gone 6-6 SU and ATS in London and are 3-2 SU and ATS since 2021.
Patriots vs Jaguars betting trend to know
Favorites of -3 or larger in international games are 25-7-1 SU and 21-12 ATS. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Jaguars.
Patriots vs Jaguars game info
| Location: | Wembley Stadium, London, England |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-20, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
Patriots vs Jaguars latest injuries
Patriots vs Jaguars weather
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