Nobody would blame you if you opted to sleep in Sunday morning, as opposed to watching the 1-5 New England Patriots take on the 1-5 Jacksonville Jaguars bright and early at 9:30 a.m. ET.
However, you can place a few Patriots vs. Jaguars player props, hit a few winners, AND catch a few extra Zs — a win for everyone!
See why I'm all-in on the Jags with my best NFL picks for this game, but if you want a full game analysis, also check out Rohit Ponnaiya's Patriots vs. Jaguars predictions.
Patriots vs Jaguars props
- Kirk o41.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Engram o4.5 receptions (-150 at BetMGM)
- Bigsby o53.5 rush yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Patriots vs Jaguars props
Prop bet #1: Christian Kirk Over 41.5 receiving yards
Christian Kirk has fallen off a lot of people's radars, partially due to his own subpar production and partially due to the emergence of first-round rookie Brian Thomas Jr.
However, Kirk draws a good matchup against a New England Patriots that plays man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league.
That bodes well for Kirk, who ranked inside the Top 10 last year in yards and targets per route run against man coverage. If Thomas draws the primary attention of lockdown corner Christian Gonzalez, then it’s wings up for Kirk even more.
Prop bet #2: Evan Engram Over 4.5 receptions
Evan Engram returned last week after a seemingly sudden and mysterious hamstring injury during Week 2 abruptly took Engram out for a month.
He immediately returned to form, posting a whopping 10 receptions for 100+ yards, albeit in a losing effort.
Engram has gone above this receptions number in all but four of his 17 games last year, racking up easy targets as Trevor Lawrence's safety valve outlet option.
The Patriots are also in the bottom-third of teams allowing targets to tight ends, funneling 6.7 of them per game.
Prop bet #3: Tank Bigsby Over 53.5 rushing yards
The Jacksonville Jaguars have had enough issues on offense, but they're now also missing RB1 Travis Etienne, who is week-to-week after sustaining an injury last Sunday.
That may be a blessing in disguise, however, as backup Tank Bigsby had already been outplaying Etienne and is schematically a better back against this New England front.
Bigsby’s rate of runs using man/gap concepts is the fifth-highest this year among running backs, and the Patriots have allowed the third-worst yards per carry to man/gap runs.
Given that the Jaguars are modest six-point favorites, there is room here from a game-script perspective for Bigsby to tally up his opportunities in the latter stages.
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