Our NFL underdogs column has been penned for almost two decades by Jason Logan, but with our grizzled veteran off this week, I'm getting the call-up.
Favorites went 9-5 ATS in Week 11 and are now covering at a tidy 53.1% rate this year. Home underdogs have had a particularly tough time and have gone just 26-36-2 ATS. That's a rough trend for us this week with nine pups at home in a 13-game slate.
That said, teams catching six or more points are 32-21-2 ATS — cashing in at a 60.4% rate. That's one reason why I'm fading the public (and my own beloved Lions) and taking the points with the Colts in my NFL picks.
If that wasn't enough of a contrarian bet, I'm also backing the Tommy DeVito-led Giants and the Bears with head coach Matt Eberflus on the hot seat.
NFL Week 12 predictions and picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Buccaneers at Giants (+6)
My pick: Giants +6
(-110 at DraftKings)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost four in a row and I'm not comfortable laying six points on the road. While the New York Giants are rolling with Tommy DeVito at quarterback, he isn't exactly a downgrade from Daniel Jones.
DeVito went 3-3 as New York's starter last year and he could provide a spark against a Bucs defense that ranks just 29th in the league in EPA/play and 30th in success rate. The Bucs are getting gashed for 4.8 yards per rush, and the Giants have piled up 143 rushing yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry since the start of October.
On the other side of the ball, Baker Mayfield has been productive but his ability to attack downfield will be hindered by sustained 15 mph winds at the Meadowlands. Pro Bowl left tackle Tristan Wirfs is also questionable with a knee injury and the biggest strength of the Giants is their defensive line.
If the G-Men can control the clock with their ground game and pressure Mayfield up front, they'll keep things close.
Vikings at Bears (+3.5)
My pick: Bears +3.5
(-115 at FanDuel)
This is a buy-low spot for the Chicago Bears, who let a win slip through their fingers last week versus the Packers. They're now on a four-game skid and will be in desperation mode with Eberflus' job on the line. The Vikings are also trending down and this will be their third straight road game following underwhelming performances in Jacksonville and Tennessee.
If the Minnesota Vikings weren't able to separate from the Jags and Titans, I'm not confident they'll win by more than a field goal against a divisional rival that is 9-2 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games at Soldier Field.
Although Sam Darnold was being hyped as an MVP candidate in September, he's crashed back to earth with seven turnover-worthy plays over the last three games. He won't find it easy to move the ball against a Chicago stop unit that ranks second in defensive dropback EPA and seventh in takeaways.
There's lots of noise in the Bears locker room and Caleb Williams is getting plenty of criticism, but he generally performs far better at home than he does on the road. He's also been getting the ball out of his hands much quicker the last two weeks, which will be crucial against a blitz-happy Brian Flores defense.
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Lions at Colts (+7.5)
My pick: Colts +7.5
(-115 at bet365)
I'm beyond excited that my Detroit Lions are Super Bowl favorites for the first time ever. However, the NFC-leading Lions generally see a drop-off in their play away from home, and this could be a letdown spot with the rival Bears on deck for Thanksgiving.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. They're coming off a last-minute road win versus the Jets and benching Anthony Richardson may have been the wake-up call he needed. Richardson returned to the starting lineup last week and had his best game of the year, throwing for 272 yards and a touchdown with another 32 yards and two scores on the ground.
Detroit's defense has looked vulnerable at times and losing middle linebacker Alex Anzalone to a broken forearm will hurt. Backup linebackers Derrick Barnes and Jalen Reeves-Maybin were already on the IR, so Detroit's depth at LB will be tested. Indy's offensive line is sixth in the league in run block win rate, and when Jonathan Taylor gets into the second level, he'll rip off big plays.
The Colts also haven't been as awful on defense as many thought they would be at the start of the year. They are now 11th in the league in defensive EPA and have been eighth in defensive EPA since Pro Bowl defensive lineman DeForest Forest came back from his injury.
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