The Cleveland Browns will look to keep their faint playoff hopes alive when they host the surging Baltimore Ravens on Saturday afternoon.
The Ravens have employed a punishing running attack to beat opponents all year long. Baltimore’s run game got an added boost last week, when J.K Dobbins returned to the lineup after his knee cost him nearly two months.
Baltimore will look to replicate that success against a Cleveland team that has struggled to slow down opposing running backs this season. We’ll take a closer look at what Dobbins might be able to do on Saturday in our NFL picks and predictions for Ravens vs Browns on December 17.
Also, make sure to check out our favorite NFL player props for this AFC North battle.
Ravens vs Browns best odds
Ravens vs Browns picks and predictions
J.K. Dobbins looked like a new man on Sunday when he ran for 120 yards and a touchdown on just 15 carries against the Pittsburgh Steelers. That performance keyed a 16-14 win for the Ravens, and was a bright sign as Baltimore continues its run at an AFC North title.
Dobbins showed his potential in 2020. In his rookie season out of Ohio State, he ran for nine touchdowns and six yards per carry despite starting only one game and getting 134 rushes on the season.
Dobbins missed the entirety of the 2021 season due to a torn ACL, and missed the first two weeks of this year as well. When he returned in late September, he didn’t look like the same running back in his first four games back, failing to rush for even 50 yards in any of those efforts.
The Ravens shut down Dobbins, and he underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. While it’s legitimate to have worries over his long-term durability, there were immediate signs that — at least in the short term — this was just what Dobbins needed. When Dobbins returned to practice, coaches and other observers promptly noted that he was running harder than he did in his initial return.
The outstanding performance against Pittsburgh showed those comments weren’t just hopeful speculation. Dobbins looked like the same running back we all saw during his rookie year, combining elusiveness with surprising strength for his size into a package that’s tough to stop.
That’s bad news for the Browns. Cleveland has allowed opposing teams to run for 128.1 yards per game, ranking 22nd in the NFL. The Browns also allow 4.8 yards per carry, the 26th-best mark in the league.
The Ravens don’t need Dobbins to run the ball. Baltimore already averages 5.2 yards per carry (second in the NFL) and 162.2 rushing yards per game (third). But after seeing what Dobbins did last week, it’s likely that they’ll turn to him for a significant number of carries again on Saturday. That’s especially true with starting quarterback Lamar Jackson set to miss this week’s game.
Yet despite all these factors, oddsmakers aren’t exactly high on Dobbins this week. The Over/Under on his rushing yardage is set at 47.5 at most sportsbooks, a stunningly low number after last week’s performance.
Yes, Dobbins will continue to share carries with Gus Edwards, and quarterback Tyler Huntley will also get some attempts on the ground. But Dobbins should get at least 10 touches, and that’s far more than he needs to hit his rushing total. I’m taking the Over on Dobbins, and looking forward to another strong performance from the young running back this Saturday.
My best bet: J.K. Dobbins Over 47.5 rushing yards (-103)
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Ravens vs Browns spread analysis
Cleveland started Saturday’s game as a 3-point favorite. There hasn’t been much movement, but the most common spread across the industry is now Browns -2.5.
The 9-4 Ravens have been the far better team this year. However, they’re now playing without star quarterback Lamar Jackson, and that has changed the outlook for this game dramatically. The Baltimore offense isn’t nearly as dynamic with Jackson out of the lineup, something that was readily apparent last week.
While Dobbins had a great game against the Steelers, quarterbacks Huntley and Anthony Brown combined to go just 11-for-17 and 104 yards passing. Huntley will need to produce more offense to beat a Cleveland team that scores a solid 23.1 points per game.
If you can get the Browns at -2.5, I’m happy to take them at that line. My one concern is that this will be a low-scoring, slowly-paced game between two teams that want to run the ball. That means this could easily be a one-possession result, even if the Browns should be able to pull out a win at home. If the line jumps back up to three points or more, either stay off this game or pay the juice to drop the line back below a field goal.
Ravens vs Browns Over/Under analysis
Sportsbooks opened this game with a total of just 40 points, anticipating a low-scoring affair. Yet bettors wanted the number even lower, and have bet it down to a consensus Over/Under of just 38.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
We’ve already talked about why this should be a Saturday slog. Both teams will focus on running the ball, which should limit the number of possessions. The Ravens might normally be able to string together some explosive plays, but without Jackson at the helm, they’ve lost that aspect of their offense.
The Ravens have played to totals of 30 or less — two of those below 20 — in their last four games. One of those outings, a 13-3 win over the Carolina Panthers, even came with Jackson behind center. The Browns have played to only slightly higher scores, with their last three games all coming in at 41 or less.
A total of 38.5 is just high enough for me to still favor the Under here, though I don’t love it. Still, even imagining a 21-17 outcome feels like a bit too many points on average, considering how each of these teams will likely approach the game. Let’s sweat out this low Under and watch the clock tick down as both teams run the ball again and again.
Ravens vs Browns betting trend to know
The Browns have allowed over 100 yards rushing in four of their last five games. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Browns.
Ravens vs Browns game info
| Location: | FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, December 17, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
| Opening odds: | Browns -3, 41.5 |
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