Best NFL Sack Prop Picks for Week 1: Donald Dominates Suspect Seattle Line

We've got our first Sunday of the 2023 NFL season coming up. While quarterback remains the most important position in the game, the guys who get after the passers remain highly coveted as well.

The 49ers giving Nick Bosa $170 million and the Chiefs line struggling without Chris Jones on Thursday is yet more evidence of the value of an elite pass rusher, and they are judged primarily on a single statistic: sacks.

I'll be bringing you my best sack prop picks and predictions every week and in the Week 1 odds, I'm backing a pair of former Defensive Player of Year winners in Khalil Mack and Aaron Donald. 

For more NFL prop plays, check out out weekly NFL prop picks, as well as our NFL touchdown props column. We also have full-game NFL picks and predictions for every Week 1 contest.

Latest Week 1 sack props

• B.J. Hill to not record a sack (-190)
• Khalil Mack Over 0.75 sacks (+175)
• Josh Uche Over 0.25 sacks (+220)
• Aaron Donald: Over 0.75 (+120)

Picks made on September 9 at 2:45 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

Best Week 1 sack picks

Bengals vs Browns: B.J. Hill

B.J. Hill is a formidable presence in the middle of Cincinnati's defensive line, but he isn't exactly a pass-rushing specialist. He picked up a sack in just four of 16 games last year and had a modest 61.2 pass rush grade according to PFF. Since joining the Bengals in 2021, Hill has failed to get a single sack in three games against the division-rival Browns.

That shouldn't be too surprising when you consider how strong the interior of Cleveland's line is. Guards Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller are multiple-time All-Pro selections while center Ethan Pocic is coming off the best season of his career after allowing just 10 pressures. Expect those linemen to keep Hill in check and off the sack sheet. 

B.J. Hill prop: To not record a sack (-190 at FanDuel)

Dolphins vs Chargers: Khalil Mack

Khalil Mack ended last season in a bit of a slump, picking up just one sack in his final eight games. At 32 years old, Mack is likely on the decline at this stage of his career, but let's not forget how well he played in the first two games of 2022 before Joey Bosa was injured.

Mack racked up four sacks and had a pass rush grade above 75 in Weeks 1 and 2 before Bosa suffered a groin injury early in the Chargers' Week 3 matchup against Jacksonville. Mack struggled without Bosa to bookend him on the edge, but with Bosa healthy this year, Mack is poised for a big performance in Week 1 against the Dolphins.

Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa tends to get rid of the ball quickly but he'll face plenty of pressure on Sunday behind a patchwork line. Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead has been ruled out for the game, which means Kendall Lamm will start in his place.

Lamm has started just five games over the last four years and is a journeyman backup who isn't capable of handling Mack. While Bosa will be attacking the right side of Miami's line, Mack should terrorize Lamm and guard Liam Eichenberg on the left. Expect Mack to prove that he still has plenty left in the tank and sack Tua on Sunday. 

Khalil Mack prop: Over 0.75 sacks (+175 at DraftKings)

Eagles vs Patriots: Josh Uche

Josh Uche had a breakout season with the Patriots last year, racking up 11.5 sacks and a pass rush grade of 87.8. The 2020 second-round selection had been hampered by injuries in his first two years but was healthy and excelled opposite Matthew Judon in 2022. He really caught on fire down the stretch, picking up at least a sack in seven of his final 10 games and posting 31 hurries during that span.

On the surface, Sunday's matchup against the Eagles looks like a terrible matchup for Uche. After all, Philadelphia had the top offensive line in the NFL according to PFF and left tackle Jordan Mailata is a monster. That said, Mailata had a modest pass blocking grade of 72.5 (36th among all offensive tackles with at least 300 pass block snaps) and allowed six sacks in 2022.

Jalen Hurts' tendency to hold on to the ball also resulted in him getting sacked 38 times in 15 games. Backing Uche to go Over 0.25 sacks at +220 is too good to pass up here.

Josh Uche: Over 0.25 sacks (+220 at DraftKings)

Rams vs Seahawks: Aaron Donald

If you read my sack totals article, you would know that I'm not high on Aaron Donald eclipsing his season sack total of 10.5. However, I do think he'll be able to get to Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith in Week 1.

Smith is coming off the first Pro Bowl season of his career but was taken down a whopping 46 times behind Seattle's brutal offensive line. Tackles Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas are expected to take a step forward in their sophomore seasons, but the interior of Seattle's line might be in even worse shape. Center Evan Brown had a pass blocking grade of just 45.5 last year, while right guard Phil Haynes was at 60.2.

Donald didn't play against the Seahawks last year but he has racked up 15 sacks in 17 career games against them, and had sacks in both meetings in 2021. The Rams' three-time Defensive Player of the Year had a career-low five sacks in 11 games last year but he still posted a sizzling 90.7 pass rush grade, the seventh-best number among all defenders.

Aaron Donald prop: Over 0.75 sacks (+120 at DraftKings)

How are sack props calculated?

It's important to read the wording associated with the sack props at each specific sports book. Most books will list an Over/Under number which is set at 0.25 or 0.75, since players can be credited for 0.5 sacks for sharing a sack with a teammate. Other books will mark a sack as a "yes" or "no" proposition in which case half a sack will typically count as the player recording a sack. 

Best strategies to bet sack props

There are several factors to consider when handicapping sack totals. The most obvious involves the defensive player himself. How often does he get sacks both in terms of his recent history and also over a larger sample size and does he consistently generate pressure. A player might have picked up sacks in three consecutive games but if he doesn't consistently beat his blocker, he's likely due for regression. On the other side of things, a player might be held off the sack sheet in four straight games, but if he's constantly pressuring opposing passers, it's only a matter of time before he gets a sack.

Who the defender is matching up against is also an important factor. How well does the projected starter opposite from him perform as a pass blocker and is that opposing player injured or playing out of position? In addition, is the offense able or willing to double-team the defender? Certain quarterbacks also hold on to the ball longer, have less pocket awareness, or don't have the mobility to evade pass rushers.

It's also important to consider how the rest of his team will affect a player's ability to get sacks. Perhaps his defensive coordinator is using him more in coverage, perhaps another defender is poaching his sacks or is allowing him to get easier matchups. Maybe improved play in the secondary will lead to coverage sacks.

Game situation also matters since an offense that throws the ball a lot or is expected to play from behind, will also give a defense more opportunity to get sacks. 

Other defensive player betting props

Sportsbooks are starting to put out other props for defensive players. That includes markets involving tackles (both solo tackles and combined tackles) as well as interceptions. 

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