Somebody has got to win in this NFC South rivalry, when two teams that have combined to lose 11 of their last 12 games played face off on Sunday, as the New Orleans Saints travel to Charlotte to take on the Carolina Panthers.
The Saints losing streak extended to six games last week, but they are getting Derek Carr back from injury this week. My Saints vs. Panthers predictions believe we will see a resurgence in the Saints offense with Carr back.
Find out why I am projecting the Saints to pick apart the Panthers' defense in my NFL picks for Sunday, November 3.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, with the game airing on CBS.
Saints vs Panthers prediction
My best bet
Saints TT Over 26.5 points (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It seems like ages ago that the New Orleans Saints were the hottest offense in the NFL. They racked up 47 points and 379 yards against these same Carolina Panthers back in Week 1 and then followed it up with 44 points and 432 yards against the Dallas Cowboys. However, they have only averaged 15.7 points and 290.8 yards over their past six games.
Now granted, three of those games were without Derek Carr at quarterback. And now he is returning just in time to face the worst defense in the NFL. The Panthers allow an unbelievable 33.9 points per game. They are on pace to break the NFL record of points allowed in a season, which dates to the 1981 Baltimore Colts at 33.3 points per game.
Only two of the eight teams that the Panthers have faced this season failed to score 27 points against them and that was the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders back in Weeks 2 and 3. However, even those teams scored well above their season averages, with the Raiders scoring four more than their average and the Chargers scoring eight more than their average.
The Saints average 23.1 points per game and 28.0 points per game with Carr as the starting quarterback. While it may seem like an obvious upgrade in the passing game, Carr’s presence makes a huge difference in the run game for the Saints. They averaged 147.5 rushing yards per game in the first four games of the season and then 85.3 in their last four games. Alvin Kamara is going to be a huge fan of Carr’s return.
The Panthers have the worst rushing defense in the NFL and have allowed 28 runs of 10+ yards. The Saints are going to be able to move the ball with relative ease, and the return of Carr will help them have a balanced attack and the ability to finish drives with touchdowns instead of field goals or turnovers. I love the Saints to be able to score at least 27 on Sunday.
Saints vs Panthers same-game parlay
Saints TT Over 26.5
Alvin Kamara Over 70.5 rushing yards
Chubba Hubbard Over 66.5 rushing yards
To go along with our best bet, I am going to ride my belief that Carr’s return helps Alvin Kamara and the run game a ton. The Panthers allow 154.6 rushing yards per game and have allowed seven different running backs to surpass 70 yards on the ground- including Kamara. Kamara averaged 90.5 rushing yards per game in the first four games with Carr at quarterback.
Finally, I will throw in a rushing prop on the other side. Chuba Hubbard has dominated the backfield since their Week 1 game against these Saints, where he only saw six carries. He has averaged 17 carries per game since Week 2 and the Saints have a very bad run defense themselves. Hubbard will be the go-to for the Panthers offense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Saints vs Panthers odds
Saints vs Panthers live odds
Saints vs Panthers opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans -7 (-110) | Carolina +7 (-110)
- Moneyline: New Orleans -350 | Carolina +280
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Saints vs Panthers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread was Saints -1 before the season but opened at 7 and has remained the same as of Friday night.
- The winning team has also covered the spread in nine of the last 10 games in this series.
- The total was 39.5 before the season but opened at 45 this week before falling to 43.5 as of Friday night.
- Seven of the last eight matchups have gone Under the total, but the matchup earlier this season was the one Over.
Saints vs Panthers betting trend to know
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Panthers.
Saints vs Panthers game info
| Location: | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-3, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Saints vs Panthers latest injuries
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