The NFL season enters Week 16 odds with an NFC matchup between two teams in the thick of a playoff race when the New Orleans Saints meet the Los Angeles Rams tonight at SoFi Stadium.
New Orleans has won two straight and tied for first place in the NFC South. Los Angeles is coming off a 28-20 home victory over Washington but is four games behind NFC West leader San Francisco and needs a victory to remain in the NFC Wild Card hunt.
Please join me as I break down the TNF odds and share my top three NFL picks for the Saints and Rams on Thursday, December 21.
If you are looking for a full game breakdown, be sure to check out our Saints vs Rams predictions as well as our Matthew Stafford odds spotlight.
Saints vs Rams TNF props
- Kyren Williams Over 88.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)
- Derek Carr Over 1.5 TD passes (+145 at DraftKings)
- Matthew Stafford Under 1.5 TD passes (+115 at FanDuel)
Picks made on December 20 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Thursday Night Football bonuses
All Users
Kupp/Nacua/Olave 200+ combined rec yards
-175 BOOSTS to +100! Claim Now
All Users
Kupp 15+ 1Q receiving yards
-170 BOOSTED to +110! Claim Now
All Users
Williams 110+ rush yards/1+ TD
+210 BOOSTED to +240! Claim Now
All Users
Rams ML + Kamara/Higbee 20+ rec yards
+250 BOOSTED to +300! Claim Now
All Users
Stafford/Carr 225+ pass yards each
+125 BOOSTED to +145! Claim Now
All Users
50% boost for 3+ leg Saints/Rams SGP
e.g. +400 BOOSTS to +600! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Saints vs Rams TNF props
Prop bet #1: Waltzing Williams
Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams has been the revelation the Rams have needed at running back this season. He’s rushed for 953 yards on 186 carries and has exceeded the bet365 number in four of his last five.
Williams also has 20+ carries in four of his last five, and he has a tasty matchup with a New Orleans Saints rushing defense surrendering the 21st-most rushing yards per game to running backs.
The game total is set at 44.5 points, and while that doesn’t indicate a high-scoring game, it does suggest the Rams could deploy a rushing game centered around Williams against a Saints defense that is much better against the pass than the run with a defense ranked 29th in the NFL in rushing plays of 40+ yards.
Finally, Williams leads the NFL in rushing yards and has been the shot in the arm the Rams offense has needed. Williams has scampered for 88 or more yards in each of his last three home games and 100+ in four of his last five. We should expect to see Los Angeles deploy Williams at least 20 times as a rusher and if they do Williams will clear his rushing prop number.
Kyren Williams prop: Over 88.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Flying Carr
Since joining the Saints as a free agent this offseason, New Orleans signal-caller Derek Carr has seen the best and worst times. He’s recorded two or more TD passes five times this season and has had four games where he hasn’t thrown any scoring strikes.
Carr has been hot over his last two matchups. The veteran quarterback has thrown five scoring strikes over his last two matchups and faces a Rams passing defense ranked eighth in fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position and 22nd in passing touchdowns allowed.
Thursday night should be a good matchup for Carr. The Saints quarterback has multiple TD passes over his last two ball games and four times in his last seven. The Saints will likely be looking up at the scoreboard, forcing Carr to throw the ball downfield, and he should have some success against a Rams passing defense allowing multiple passing touchdown games in each of their last three.
Finally, the +145 odds for this passing prop are too good to pass up. Carr has been hot, the Rams' secondary has been leaky, and I expect the Saints' signal-caller to throw for Over 1.5 TD passes against the Rams.
Derek Carr prop: Over 1.5 TD passes (+145 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Slowing Stafford
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has been on fire, throwing multiple scoring strikes in each of his last four games. Still, he has a difficult matchup Thursday against a New Orleans passing defense surrendering a sixth-best 1.1 passing touchdowns per contest.
Stafford has always been streaky during his career. After opening the season without a TD pass, the Rams signal-caller has thrown at least one scoring strike in each of his past dozen games. He’s only recently enjoyed the multiple TD frenzy, and before his last four, he recorded just one game with two or more TD passes.
New Orleans has held opposing quarterbacks to less than 1.5 TD passes in four of their last five matchups. They rank second in the NFL in touchdowns by wide receivers, ninth by running backs but 30th most by tight ends.
Finally, will be a tough go for Stafford to throw the two TD passes required to clear this passing TD prop. The Rams veteran has more games with less than 1.5 scoring strikes (8) than multiple TD games (5) and faces one of the best passing defenses in the NFL. Take Under 1.5 touchdown passes in this one.
Matthew Stafford prop: Under 1.5 TD passes (+115 at FanDuel)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
🕒Vermont: Sports betting is coming!🕒
Vermont sports betting will launch on January 11 — but you can pre-register now with FanDuel and DraftKings!
Check out the best Vermont sports betting apps (as more brands launch in the Green Mountain State), as well as the best Vermont sportsbook promos!
21+ and present in VT. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
