Steelers vs Bengals Week 1 Props: A New Star Emerges in Pittsburgh's New Era

An old rivalry will renew on Sunday but with a new twist. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals have done battle in the AFC North for decades but traditionally, it has been Pittsburgh playing the role of the big brother to Cincinatti's helpless little brother.

This season, however, will begin with the Bengals wearing the divisional crown while the Steelers look at a daunting trip around the quarterback carousel. 

With two intriguing offenses clashing on the Ohio River, we take a look at the Steelers vs. Bengals with our best NFL player prop picks. 

Steelers vs Bengals prop picks

• Harris Under 3.5 catches
• Higgins Under 70.5 receiving yards
• Pickens Over 37.5 receiving yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Steelers vs Bengals Week 1 props

Back to basics

Our long national nightmare is over: Ben Roethlisberger is retired, and we’ll no longer be subject to his rampant mythmaking or endless check downs. 

For us, that’s more entertaining football. For Najee Harris, it’s fewer immediate hits after Roethlisberger chucks him the football equivalent of a pass in basketball with three seconds left on the shot clock.

Roethlisberger’s waning arm strength and overwhelming desire to avoid hits allowed Harris to record an absurd 74 catches as a rookie — six fewer than he recorded over four years at Alabama. Harris was shoehorned into a role that was never his to fill, after he made his name as a physical runner with the Tide. 

After 381 touches as a rookie behind a middling offensive line, and now an August lisfranc injury, Pittsburgh’s no doubt going to look to lighten Harris’s workload. The first cuts to that workload will come in the passing game, where he should’ve never been featured in the first place.

Backup Jaylen Warren was among the most impressive tailbacks around the league in the preseason and should rotate into the backfield at a decent rate. It also wouldn't be surprising to see Anthony McFarland, who totaled 1,847 scrimmage yards across two years at Maryland under Steelers OC Matt Canada, get promoted from the practice squad to feature on passing downs.

Books understand the role Roethlisberger played in Harris’s catch numbers last year but at 3.5, it’s still a catch too high to duck.

Harris averaged 2.6 catches per game over his two seasons as a starter at Alabama, and as the Steelers turn the page at quarterback, Harris will turn back the clock and go back to what he does best.

Najee Harris Prop: Under 3.5 catches (-112)

On a Tee

Whilst Joe Burrow’s appendectomy — a famously sexy procedure — got the headlines, the Bengals’ offense was cautiously watching the recovery of another key piece. Fresh off a breakout sophomore campaign, receiver Tee Higgins underwent shoulder surgery and was held out of offseason activities as a result. 

Higgins’ participation in camp was limited first to 1-on-1s and then 7-on-7s, with a full return to practice only coming this week. Between he and Burrow’s surgeries, they haven’t really practiced together since before the Super Bowl, but there’s more reason to fade Higgins on Sunday.

There’s the nature of Higgins’ injury to account for. Shoulder injuries are notoriously tricky for receivers and defensive backs to get back to full strength from, and any nagging effects would be especially prohibitive for a receiver like Higgins, who wins above the rim and due to his catch radius so frequently. 

The weather in Cincinnati for Sunday doesn’t look great, with thunderstorms in the forecast for the afternoon. The Bengals don’t need an excuse to go run-heavy — and won’t need one with their franchise QB coming back from surgery — but could opt for that approach in poor conditions.

Cincinnati was in the middle of the league in pass frequency last year and finished with a run:pass ratio leaning toward the run in six regular season games last year.

Finally, there’s the matter of Higgins’ production itself. The yards total posted for Sunday, between 69.5 and 70.5 yards, reflects the level he and Cincinnati's offense was operating at to close last season. He did, however, go Under that total in eight of 14 games last year.

Tee Higgins Prop: Under 70.5 yards (-114)

Slim Pickens 

An ACL injury may have robbed him of his rightful crown as his draft class’s WR1, but George Pickens is making up time in a hurry. The second-round pick looks like yet another gem found by the Steelers on days two and three of the draft, with a great camp and preseason setting the stage for an Offensive Rookie of the Year push. 

Pickens may have earned his opportunity on merit but he’s getting a little help from elsewhere, too. Diontae Johnson is limited in practice with a shoulder injury that could hold him out, Chase Claypool had a shoulder injury of his own early in camp, and Harris was dealing with a lisfranc sprain — a famously lingering injury.

Johnson’s status, in particular, will be a big boost to Pickens’ production on Sunday. Should he play, he’d be unlikely to receive a full workload. While the plan is for Pickens to come off the field in two receiver sets, with Claypool shifting inside in three-receiver sets, that would change with Johnson hobbled. More time on the field is great news for Over bettors. 

Then, there’s the question of Pickens’ matchup… and it’s a tasty one. Eli Apple was last seen getting burned… and burned… and burned… in the Super Bowl, while Chidobe Awuzie could shadow Claypool inside, kicking Mike Hilton out, to maintain some size against the big slot. 

There's an alternate universe, in which that time traveler didn't move that chair, where Pickens didn't tear his ACL at Georgia and instead was seen as the next up in a long line of ready-made stars at receiver entering the NFL. Pickens didn't get that ascension as a Bulldog but he will as a Steeler — it will be immediate, with a flashy Week 1. 

George Pickens Prop: Over 37.5 receiving yards (-114)

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