The NFL went to the dogs this past week, with point-spread pups finishing an insane 11-3 against the spread when the smoke cleared Monday night.
That result was a big bounce back for NFL underdogs — and sportsbooks — after favorites hit at a 63% clip the five weeks prior. The dog-friendly finish brought balance to the overall count, with faves still holding a 51.3% edge in terms of cover rate in 2024.
Teams getting six or more points from the oddsmakers are a remarkable 30-17-2 ATS — cashing in at a 63% rate. That includes going 6-2 ATS in Week 10.
We’re going to see more and more big lines as the schedule plays out, including the Dallas Cowboys this week at +7.5 vs the Texans, who will highlight one of my NFL picks.
There were just 19 underdogs of +6 or higher in the opening five weeks of play, and those teams covered the spread in almost 82% of those games. Crazy.
However, since Week 6, we’ve seen a spike in sizable spreads, with 30 pups of six-plus or higher. Those dogs are covering at less than a 52% rate.
The Week 11 board gives a little bit of everything, from the reigning Super Bowl champs as underdogs to possibly the biggest points spread of the entire season, so let's get into it.
Last week: 3-0 ATS
Season: 17-13 ATS
NFL Week 11 picks and predictions
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills
My pick: Kansas City +2.5
(-110 at DraftKings)
When the name of the game is picking underdogs, you rarely get to bet on the defending champs. But, for the second time this season, the Kansas City Chiefs are pups.
Kansas City was also a dog back in Week 7 when it went into San Francisco and won outright as a two-point underdog. This feels like a very similar situation in Week 11, with K.C. coming off an ugly win and the Buffalo Bills riding high off an impressive victory at Indianapolis.
Buffalo wants this one so bad and this game has been circled on the calendar since the schedule dropped in the spring. The Bills look ready, riding a five-game winning streak into Week 11.
Kansas City, on the other hand, has kind of cruised through the season yet remains undefeated. Sure, the Chiefs are out to win, but in pursuit of their third straight Super Bowl, the urgency in the regular season just isn’t there. Except for big games.
We’ve seen Patrick Mahomes and the passing offense start to perk up, especially with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins at receiver. Buffalo’s defense, while ranked among the Top 10 in many advanced metrics, has been a little too “bend but don’t break” for my liking.
The Bills have given up 360 or more yards in three of those past five wins, including 361 yards to the Colts and 373 to the Dolphins in the two most recent outings. Buffalo ranks 20th in opponent success rate per play during that streak and is also 20th in EPA allowed per dropback in those five showings.
Kansas City’s defense is much stronger, with Steve Spagnuolo’s stop unit sitting No. 4 in Defensive DVOA. His aggressive schemes take on a Bills attack potentially missing pieces for this massive Week 11 meeting. As of this writing, receiver Keon Coleman is out for Sunday, and fellow targets WR Amari Cooper and TE Dalton Kincaid are questionable.
I would be remiss if I didn’t include the Chiefs’ outstanding work as rare underdogs during Mahomes time as K.C.’s QB1. Since 2018, Kansas City is 12-5 SU and 13-3-1 ATS (79%) when getting points, including 9-3-1 ATS as a regular season dog.
Cleveland Browns (+1) at New Orleans Saints
My pick: Cleveland Browns +1
(-110 at bet365)
Now we go from Kansas City to the Cleveland Browns... the biggest quality drop since season 13 of The Simpsons.
Cleveland is coming off a bye week and heads to the Cresent City for a showdown with the Saints in Week 11.
The Browns needed that pause in action. Not only does the bye allow the team to fully commit to Jameis Winston at quarterback, but it also gives this injury-plagued roster time to mend, as well as get running back Nick Chubb a recharge ahead of what will be a heavy workload in NOLA.
The New Orleans Saints defense is dreadful against the run, ranked 31st in EPA allowed per carry and 30th in opponent success rate per handoff. New Orleans is 29th in run-stop win rate and allowing 5.1 yards per carry to rival rushers.
While the Browns lean on RBs Chubb and Jerome Ford on offense, the Cleveland defense will set its sights on Saints QB Derek Carr. The Browns continue to attack with the fourth-highest pressure rate per dropback, fueled by a blitz-heavy scheme that has collected 27 sacks on the season.
Carr has only been sacked six times in his seven games but plays in front of a dinged-up offensive line rated 31st in pass block win rate at ESPN.
Carr was able to pull off two deep shots to new WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the upset over a passive Atlanta defense last week — hitting him for home runs of 40 and 67 yards — but won’t have time in the pocket for those big throws to develop against Cleveland’s pressure.
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5)
My pick: Dallas Cowboys +7.5
(-110 at FanDuel)
The Dallas Cowboys looked terrible in a one-sided loss to Philadelphia, and that has the market moving for Dallas’ Monday Night Football matchup with the Houston Texans.
The Cowboys opened as short as +6.5, and money on the Texans pushed this spread through the key number of a touchdown and has a tantalizing hook starring us in the face for the home side.
If there were bright spots for Dallas in Week 10, it was the return of Micah Parsons and brief shining moments for a defense that has been dead in the water the past month. The Cowboys ranked 14th in EPA allowed per play in Week 10 despite five turnovers, giving Philly the football for 34 minutes.
The Parsons-led pass rush got to Jalen Hurts for five sacks, and the Dallas defense now faces one of the worst offensive lines in football. The Texans pass protection ranks 28th in pass block win rate, allowing QB C.J. Stroud to feel the third highest pressure rate and suffer 34 sacks — second most in the NFL.
As for the Cowboys' offense, backup QB Cooper Rush is better than his Week 10 effort. He’s proven to be a solid understudy to the injured Dak Prescott, and I expect more from the Dallas offense in Week 11... which isn’t asking much.
Houston has a habit of playing in close games, with eight of its 10 contests being decided by one score — six of those by four points or less.
Even with WR Nico Collins trending toward a return, this line move is an overreaction to the public perception piling on “America’s Team” while they’re down.
Not intended for use in MA.
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