With Christmas around the corner, Super Bowl odds keep shifting, with the Dallas Cowboys moving down the futures board after a loss to the Jaguars.
The Cowboys had steadily moved up the board thanks to a dominant defense, but NFL odds have appeared to downgrade them after some inconsistent performances from quarterback Dak Prescott. The Cowboys entered Jacksonville with +800 odds to win the Super Bowl, but after losing in overtime, have risen to +1,100.
Is now a good time to buy in on America's Team? I let you know as I break down the Cowboys' Super Bowl 57 futures heading into Week 16.
Latest Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl odds
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +1,100 |
| To win division | OTB |
| To win conference | +440 |
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of December 20, 2022.
Latest Dallas Cowboys odds movement
The Cowboys came into the season in ninth place on the Super Bowl odds board (+2,000) on FanDuel. After an ugly opening-week loss to the Bucs and an injury to Prescott, the Cowboys' futures odds dropped all the way to +5,000.
Dallas ended up winning four of its next five games with backup Cooper Rush under center, and it turned out that Prescott's injury wasn't nearly as bad as early reports indicated.
He returned from the IR in Week 7, and the Cowboys won six of their next seven games before falling to the Jags last week. It was the worst defensive performance of the year for the Cowboys, who had just one sack and surrendered 503 yards of offense.
That said, Dallas still ranks third in the league in EPA/play on defense while leading the league in pressure rate. That long-term success on defense indicates that last week was likely an outlier, but Dallas' hiccups on offense are a bit more concerning.
Although the Cowboys' offense went ballistic against the Bears, Vikings, and Colts (averaging 47.7 ppg in those contests), Prescott's decision-making continues to be erratic.
Prescott has thrown seven interceptions in the last four games (including a pick-six in overtime last week), which has led to those old criticisms that he can't get Dallas over the hump.
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Dallas Cowboys odds outlook
With the Cowboys getting an early Christmas present by possibly facing the Eagles without Jalen Hurts on Saturday, they could easily win out to end their regular season.
That said, they could also just as easily lose their next game or two. Philadelphia's backup QB Gardner Minshew isn't exactly chopped liver, and facing the Titans on the road won't be easy. If they come up short in either of those contests, their Super Bowl odds will likely increase.
That would make betting on Dallas an intriguing futures bet. After all, the Cowboys have already clinched a playoff spot and, with an elite defense, could make a deep run in the wide-open NFC.
Prescott might be inconsistent, but he also looks like a Pro Bowler at times, and the running back duo of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott has been churning out yards.
Keep in mind that since Prescott returned in Week 7, the Cowboys' offense ranks fourth in the league in EPA/play. That balanced attack might be more than enough to make a Super Bowl run with how stingy their defense has been.
Dallas Cowboys upcoming schedule
Saturday, December 24 - vs Philadelphia
This is a massive game against the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Cowboys opened as slim 2-point home faves before moving to -6 following the news that Hurts could be sidelined with a shoulder strain.
The Cowboys lost 26-17 in Philadelphia earlier this season with Rush starting, but it would be unwise to count the Eagles out even if the MVP favorite doesn't play. The Eagles have one of the top defenses in the league, and Minshew has proven that he can be a competitive starter.
Thursday, December 29 - at Tennessee
Tennessee is just .500 and has lost four games in a row, but this is still a dangerous team to face on the road. Especially on primetime, where the Titans are 5-1 ATS going back to last season.
The Titans have one of the best running backs in the league in Derrick Henry, and their defense ranks first in EPA/play against the run, which makes them a formidable opponent at this time of the year.
Saturday, January 8 - at Washington
Dallas might not have much to play for in this contest, but even if it plays its regular starters, this won't be an easy matchup.
The Washington Commanders are coming off a couple of uninspiring performances against the Giants, but they're still 6-2-1 SU and ATS in their last nine. Road games against division rivals are always tough to navigate.
