After a mild Week 4 gave NFL survivor pools hope wild upsets were over, Week 5 came in like a wrecking ball: Miley style.
Losses from San Franciso and Seattle — the two most popular survivor selections — decimated an already shallow field, leaving just 41 entries alive of the original 3,789 in Covers’ 10K Pro Football Survivor Pool.
FYI: If you were one of the 3,748 survivor pool players that got GOT by those crazy early-season results, Covers is offering a chance at redemption… and $5,000. Check out Covers’ “Second Chance” Pro Football Survivor Pool, which starts this week.
As for me, I’m among the 41 lucky poolies with life in my lungs. I trusted the Bears to win in Week 5... or maybe it was more like trusted the Panthers to lose. Either way, I’m on to Week 6.
Here’s my NFL survivor pool pick for Week 6, as well as the “safest” of NFL picks, according to the odds. But we all know where that leads...
Best survivor pool bets for Week 6
Click on each pick to read the full analysis.
Covers Week 6 survivor pool pick
Green Bay Packers
Opponent: vs. Arizona Cardinals
Moneyline odds: -245 (71% implied win probability)
What goes up must come down.
That’s the motto of the Arizona Cardinals, who are 0-9 SU off a win going back to the 2022 season. After stunning San Francisco as seven-point pups last week, the Cardinals have a massive letdown on deck as they head to Wisconsin in Week 6.
If you dig into Arizona’s upset, you see the 24-23 win wasn’t all it's doing. The Niners held a 23-10 lead entering the second half but proceeded to go interception, turnover on downs, lost fumble, and interception on their four possessions in the final 30 minutes. Arizona flipped that mess into 14 second-half points, and more than 37% of survivor pool players were toast.
This Week 6 road trip is a 1 p.m. ET kickoff at Lambeau Field, where the extended forecast calls for temperatures around 50 degrees, wind gusts up to 30 mph, and possible showers. Not the climate-controlled confines of State Farm Stadium by any means.
The Green Bay Packers picked up a solid road win over the L.A. Rams last Sunday (besides Jordan Love's WTF Pick-6) and face an Arizona defense ranking near the back of the pack in most advanced metrics. Despite the victory in Santa Clara on Sunday, the Cardinals are just 6-13 SU on the road since 2022.
Safest Week 6 survivor pool pick
Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: vs. Cleveland Browns
Moneyline odds: -425 (81% implied win probability)
The Philadelphia Eagles are fresh off the bye and will face a Cleveland Browns squad spiraling out of control.
Philadelphia has had two weeks to tighten the screws and get some key bodies back on offense, namely WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith but also RT Lane Johnson. The Eagles are 2-2 with issues on both sides of the ball, but those woes seem trivial compared to the catastrophe in Cleveland.
The Browns are sticking with Deshaun Watson (and his albatross of a contract) at quarterback, despite his 2024 performance rating out lower than “Joker: Folie à Deux”. Cleveland’s offensive line is also a mess with numerous injuries, and that’s compounded the QB problems.
At this rate, the Browns will join the Panthers as a viable week-to-week “fade” strategy for survivor pool players.
Most popular Week 6 picks in the Covers $10K survivor pool
Get back in the game with Covers $5K second chance survivor pool!
Knocked out of the survivor pool already? Get back in the action with our second-chance survivor pool!
The pool starts in Week 6 — enter now as the deadline is kickoff this Sunday, October 13!
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