Yes, ladies and gentleman, it’s that joyous time of year when we take a brief moment to turn our attention to the wonder that is Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and his remarkable record when coming off a bye week.
Dating back to his time with the Philadelphia Eagles, Reid is a ridiculous 16-2 straight-up and 13-5 against the spread when coaching off the bye week.
Granted, one surefire way to go bankrupt in the sports betting racket is to consistently back double-digit road favorites in the National Football League. But what are you supposed to do when one rule for sports wagering success crosses paths with the Andy Reid bye week freight train?
Perhaps we take a good, long look at Reid’s Week 11 opponent and embrace solace in the fact that the New York Giants are 0-4 ATS over their last four home games.
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Over/Under: 75-71
Home underdogs ATS: 27-26-2
Favorites ATS: 68-70-6
Home teams ATS: 71-69-6
Trend of the Week
Outside of Andy Reid’s success when coming off the bye week, here’s another trend to keep in mind for Week 11: The New Orleans Saints are 12-2 ATS over their last 14 games following a win.
Not only that, but take note that Drew Brees and company are 20-7 ATS over their last 27 games overall. At the time of this publication, New Orleans could be found anywhere from -7.5 to -9 for Sunday’s home showdown with Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins.
Sharps like…
This week’s information from behind the betting counter comes to us courtesy of Dave Mason from BetOnline.ag. You can follow Dave on twitter @DaveMasonBOL.
“We’ll see more sharp action today and tomorrow, but so far the sharper stuff consists of the New England-Oakland over at 51.5 and 52,” Mason told Covers.com. “That total is now all the way up to 55. Additionally, the Chargers are now up to -6 after sharp action came in on Los Angeles -4. Bears +3 against Detroit and over 41.5 in the Tampa Bay-Miami game were sharp plays as well.”
The public likes…
Bet counts, courtesy of Mason and BetOnline.ag:
93% on the Patriots (vs. Oakland in Mexico City)
92% on the Eagles (at Dallas)
86% on the Lions (at Chicago)
78% on the Jaguars (at Cleveland)
74% on the Chiefs (at NY Giants)
71% on the Broncos (vs. Cincinnati)
66% on the Saints (vs. Washington)
64% on the Ravens (at Green Bay)
Biggest line move…
“The Chargers moving from -4 to -6, the Eagles from -3 to -4.5 and the Patriots from -5.5 to -7.5,” said Mason.
Biggest sweat…
“There are a ton of big sweats this weekend,” said Mason. “But there are two games where we will need to apply some extra Right Guard. Last week, the Patriots were the public’s biggest winner of the season. And just like every week, the public is pounding the defending Super Bowl champs yet again, as only 5% of the cash is backing the Raiders and the points. New England teased down is also the most popular teaser of the weekend. The house will be huge Raider fans, needless to say.”
“The public has profited big time off of the primetime games this year, including winning all three last week. Not surprisingly, the Eagles are the public play in this spot as 95% of the cash is betting on Philly.”
“To give you a better idea of how much cash is coming in on the Patriots and Eagles, there is as much money on those two spreads than the 16 teams playing in the early games combined.”
Muffed Punt Picks: Week 11
Last week: 2-2
Season: 13-17
Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears: The Bears are 4-1 ATS at Soldier Field this season and 8-2 ATS over their last ten home dates. So the surface analysis here is that Chicago, as a home dog against a divisional rival, would be the smart wager. But ask yourself what it’s like the in the Bears locker room these days. Or, just listen to local Chicago sports talk radio where head coach John Fox is getting killed for his boneheaded challenge in last week’s loss to the Packers. With Fox squarely on the hot seat, you have to wonder how seriously he’s being taken in the Chicago locker room. As for Detroit, the Lions have quietly hung 68 points over their last two outings to make them 8-0 ATS over their last 8 games played in the month of November.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams (OVER 45.5 points): Jared Goff and the Rams lead the league in scoring this season, in part, because of how well this franchise has played on the road…which is an integral component in a team’s postseason chances. In four road dates this season, the Rams have hung 41 points, 35 points, 27 points and 51 points on their unsuspecting hosts. On the flip side, Minnesota’s offense has been cooking with gas as of late by averaging a healthy 31.6 points per game over their last three outings.
New England Patriots (-7) vs. Oakland Raiders: The big misconception here is that the New England defense is terrible. But if you’re willing to put a little elbow grease into the research, you’d notice that the Pats have surrendered just 14 points, 17 points, 7 points, 13 points and 16 points over their last five outings. For the math impaired, that’s an average of just 13.4 points per game! Further, the Patriots are 21-7 ATS over their last 28 games overall while the Raiders have covered just one spread over their last seven games.
Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals (OVER 38 points): So much for this “No Fly Zone” defense in Denver, which has surrendered an average of 40.3 points per game over its last three outings. Conversely, Cincinnati’s defense has permitted 23 or more points in four straight outings. Between Andy Dalton and Brock Osweiler, I think enough mistakes will be made in this game that both teams will fall ass backwards into free points.
DFS Value Play of the Week
Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders: He’s off the bye week and is familiar with the effects of playing at Mexico City’s high altitude after last season’s 27-20 victory over the Houston Texans. Honestly, if Carr can’t produce an above average stat line this week, you have to start wondering about whether or not he was worth all that money the Raiders gave him this past summer.
New England’s defense has been playing much better as of late, but the Patriots still rank dead-last in the NFL in defending the pass (287.2 yds/gm) and are currently surrendering an average of 24.2 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (most in NFL).
Quote of the Week
“Rude people will now and then ask me why I think I know so much about politics. I tell them it’s because I’m smart. But that is a lie. The real reason is because I’m an incurable gambling addict.”
--Hunter S. Thompson
