Coming out of the bye, the Kansas City Chiefs are big double-digit favorites entering Sunday night vs. the Tennessee Titans, who might not have some key pieces on defense.
With the game script favoring the Kansas City rushing game and Isiah Pacheco’s rushing total inflating, is the best bet on the running back who has been the favorite in the red zone?
Check out my best NFL prop picks for Sunday Night Football’s Week 9 matchup between the Titans and Chiefs.
Titans vs Chiefs props
- Edwards-Helaire Over 25.5 rushing yards
- Smith-Schuster Over 52.5 receiving yards
- Gray anytime touchdown
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Titans vs Chiefs SNF props
The boring pick
The Titans will be missing safety Amani Hooker who has been ruled out, but the biggest potential loss could come from Pro Football Focus’ No. 2 defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons.
Simmons has six sacks on the season and leads the team in hurries and pressures. He is also one of the main reasons the Titans’ run defense has been a Top 10 unit this season.
The DT was DNP at practice on Friday and is on the wrong side of questionable for Sunday night. This hurts the Tennessee pass rush but also opens a hole up the middle in a game where the game script favors the Kansas City rushing attack.
The KC backfield is a little muddied, with Isiah Pacheco getting more looks. However, Clydes Edward-Helaire has scored eight touchdowns over seven games and still saw roughly the same action in Week 7 as the rookie, but it’s Pacheco’s numbers that are decreasing.
Pacheco’s rushing total is sitting at 39.5 yards after closing at 35.5 yards in Week 7. With this backfield looking like a true timeshare, I have no issue betting on the less-attractive CEH at just 25.5 yards — a number he has topped in five of seven games with a moderate rushing volume.
Andy Reid rotates his backs well, but if the Chiefs are going to rush the ball 25 times with a positive game script, CEH would only need seven carries at 4.0 yards per carry to hit this Over. He could top it with his red-zone volume alone, as he is still the team’s preferred RZ running back.
Jerrick McKinnon’s rushing and receiving total of 27.5 is also something I’d prefer to Pacheco’s rushing total. With the uncertainty of the share, CEH’s rushing total is the least risk in a great matchup for the KC running game.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Prop: Over 25.5 rushing yards (-110)
Don’t be scared of the game script
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been getting 20% of the target share in the league’s No.1 offense and posted back-to-back 100-yard games vs. difficult defenses before the Chiefs’ bye week.
The Kansas City passing game will face a Tennessee defense that allows a 96.6 passer rating, a 67.5% completion percentage, and could be missing some elite talent.
Smith-Schuster has become very comfortable with this offense. Getting his receiving yard total at 52.5 yards when his average total has been 49.5 yards on the season is good with me.
The low total might have to do with a potential game script that favors the run, but Kansas City is still a Top 10 pass-rate team and as we saw on TNF, predicting the game script is never an exact science. Over the last five games that Patrick Mahomes has been a double-digit favorite dating back to last season, he’s averaging 37.8 passing attempts for 298 yards per game.
This is a good matchup for Smith-Schuster. With at least eight targets in five of his seven games and Tennessee's injuries to Hooker and Simmons, Mahomes should help JuJu surpass his receiving yards total.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Prop: Over 52.5 receiving yards (+110)
TD longshot
Looking for a Sunday night longshot to cap off a hopeful big day? How about a +900 touchdown for a Kansas City tight end?
Jody Fortson was DNP at practice on Thursday with a quad injury and an illness and then was ruled out on Friday. Noah Gray has been playing roughly 50% of the snaps on the season. Although he has just 14 targets on the season, he could see some action in the red zone from the creative playcalling of Andy Reid.
Only three other teams are allowing more passing TDs than the Titans, while the Kansas City offense is scoring a TD inside the red zone at a league-best 77% on the year.
Gray’s TD price is as short as +370, and with Forston out, this number will close much shorter than +900. Blake Bell is also on the IR.
This is a low-probability play, but +900 is a great price to get ahead of the market in the most creative offense that loves scoring TDs near the goal line.
Noah Gray Prop: Anytime touchdown (+900)
