Titans vs Chiefs Sunday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Mahomes, Kelce Keep Cooking

Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel is being a bit cagey with the status of his starting quarterback when the Titans visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.

Ryan Tannehill has been dubbed a game-time decision due to an ankle injury, with rookie passer Malik Willis as his backup. The two QBs present very different skill sets and therefore leave Kansas City to plan for two very different approaches on defense.

For the Chiefs offense, however, it's all systems go. Kansas City is fresh off a bye week and enters Week 9 as the highest-scoring team in the NFL. Hence, the double-digit spread.

I break down the point spread and Over/Under total for Sunday Night Football and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Titans at Chiefs on November 6.

Titans vs Chiefs best odds

Titans vs Chiefs picks and predictions

If you read my weekly NFL Underdogs column, you’ll see that I rolled the dice on Tennessee at +13, trying to get a big number with the hope that Tannehill would suit up.

His mystery status has kept plenty of alternative markets off the board, including many player props. So, we turn our attention to the Chiefs’ roster of playmakers for a prop pick on Sunday night.

Patrick Mahomes has multiple options in the passing game and added another during the trade deadline with WR Kadarius Toney joining the ranks. Head coach Andy Reid told the media that Toney will play on Sunday night, which means fewer snaps and possibly fewer targets for KC’s other receivers. 

However, Toney won’t take snaps away from Mahomes’ favorite option, TE Travis Kelce, who could see even more playing time with fellow TE Jody Fortson out for Week 9. Kelce’s receiving yards prop for Sunday night is set as low as 71.5 yards – a mark he’s topped easily in the last two games. 

Kelce caught six of eight balls for 98 yards in the win over San Francisco in Week 7, going Over his total of 70.5 yards, and has topped his receiving yards prop in three of the last four outings and seven of his last 10 games going back to last season.

Against the Titans last season, Kelce was targeted 12 times with seven receptions for just 65 yards. Tennessee had success matching up safeties on the big tight end in that contest but is without starting SS Amani Hooker for Week 9. 

While the Chiefs’ loaded receiving corps plays musical chairs for targets, Kelce will see a solid number of snaps. And if the big spread is any indication, he will still be part of the offense if KC goes heavier on runs and short passes with a lead in the second half.

My best bet: Travis Kelce Over 71.5 receiving yards (-110)

Titans vs Chiefs spread analysis

The offseason look-ahead line for this big AFC matchup was Kansas City -6.5 but with the Chiefs' dominance and Tannehill’s ankle injury, this one officially opened Chiefs -11.5 last Sunday night. 

With Tannehill’s status in question, it quickly got bet up to as high as -13.5 before buyback slimmed the spread to a market consensus of -12.5 early in the week. Some respected online books took it down to -11.5 as Tannehill was limited in practice Wednesday, sat out Thursday but was limited again Friday, leaving Vrabel to tag him as a game-time decision.

As of Sunday morning, the market consensus is Kansas City -12.5.

The lofty spread speaks to the recent dominance of Kansas City since the Titans enter this matchup on a five-game winning streak. Tennessee, however, hasn’t played the toughest slate of foes and no QB as quality as Mahomes during this span.

The last we saw the Chiefs, they were roasting one of the best defenses in the NFL for 44 points in a one-sided win over San Francisco in Week 7. Also fueling this beefy spread is the fact that head coach Andy Reid is coming off a bye and has historically been solid when given an extra week off.

Since 1999, Reid is 20-3 SU and 15-8 ATS off a bye week as a head coach going back to his time in Philadelphia.

According to DraftKings, 60% of bets are taking the points with the Titans but the handle is relatively split, with 54% of money on Kansas City.

Titans vs Chiefs Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under opened at 46.5 points and slipped as low as 45 with Tannehill sitting out practice on Thursday. But with his limited showing at practice Friday and the fact he’s travelled with the team to Arrowhead Stadium, the number has ticked back up to 46 at some books.

This total is significantly shorter than those set for recent meetings between these teams, as the Titans and Chiefs have produced Over/Under numbers of 49, 51, and 59 in their last three meetings.

Tennessee’s offense no longer has a complementary passing game to go along with RB Derrick Henry’s dominance on the ground and runs the most methodical attack in terms of seconds per play and sits second in average plays per game. 

The Titans’ defense has looked solid during their recent winning streak and while those victories came against much weaker offenses than Kansas City, the advanced metrics still paint Tennessee as a sound stop unit, sitting No. 5 in EPA allowed per play since Week 3.

The Chiefs' offense is the highest-scoring in the land with multiple options in the playbook. Kansas City is No. 1 in offensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and head-and-shoulders No. 1 in EPA per play as well. Defensively, KC isn’t as sound and ranks out 20th in points per play allowed.

On the year, the Titans own a 2-5 O/U mark heading into Week 9 while the Chiefs are 4-3 O/U. DraftKings sportsbooks are reporting 69% of bets on the Over along with 66% of money.

Titans vs Chiefs betting trend to know

Since Mahomes’ breakout season in 2018, Kansas City is 16-2 SU as a double-digit favorite but jut 8-9-1 ATS in those games. Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Chiefs.

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