Best NFL Touchdown Props for Week 18: Robinson Makes Most of Regular-Season Finale

Prop bet #1: Back-up bargain

Let’s kick off the Week 18 TD bonanza in Baltimore on Saturday night where the Ravens will be resting some key players. 

Melvin Gordon’s TD was a great one to grab early but the value has plummeted after moving to below +300, which is past my buy point. 

Odell Beckham has been ruled out, Zay Flowers has been labeled doubtful, and there isn’t much reason Rashod Bateman would play with the No. 1 spot sewn up.

That means it will be a receiver group led by Nelson Agholor, Tylan Wallace, Laquon Treadwell, and Malik Cunningham. It is not a strong group and if the weather conditions weren’t trash — 15-20 mph winds and rain/snow — I’d jump on some of these longshots. But the real value might be in the legs of starting QB Tyler Huntley at +450 to score. 

The Baltimore backup will have to deal with some poor passing conditions, which could increase the scramble opportunities. Gordon could struggle in tight to punch it in and Huntley has shown he can put it over the line.

The Week-18 starter played five games last year, totaled 43 carries, and had one rushing TD. The season before that, he had two rushing TDs over four starts where he averaged over nine carries a game. 

The weather conditions are in his favor to be an active runner and at +450, I’m in for a full unit on the Tyler Huntley odds. I’d play this to +350. 

Agholor has the third-most snaps among the team’s WRs and is a healthy +700 at bet365 for a TD, which is worth a half unit as he will likely be the No. 1 option for Tyler Huntley in a game with a potential passing game script. 

Tyler Huntley prop: Anytime TD (+450 at bet365)

Nelson Agholor prop: Anytime TD (+700 at bet365 for 0.5u)

Prop bet #2: An eye-soar defense

I want a piece of the Giants’ pass-catchers this week in a great matchup vs. the Eagles who sit 29th in points allowed, dead-last in passing attempts allowed, and give up 2.1 passing TDs per game, which is only better than the Commanders at 2.2. 

The New York passing game also looked better with Tyrod Taylor under center after he threw for over 300 yards last week. He has been announced as the Week 18 starter but has been limited at practice. It’s worth monitoring and I’d rather Taylor than Tommy DeVito, but the worst-case scenario here isn’t a big downgrade to early bettors. 

Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Jalin Hyatt all got routes last week as the Giants ran 11 personnel at 79%, which is one of the higher rates from Week 17. Despite the yardage, the Giants just had two series in the red zone but had zero RB runs inside the 20. Daniel Bellinger and Isaiah Hodgins saw the two targets but Robinson did score on an end-around from 24 yards out and Slayton caught another long TD for the second straight week.

So where is the best value in this group? I’m going with Robinson, who has an identical 15.9% target share as Slayton. Although he doesn’t have the air yards that his teammate does, Taylor targeted him a team-high nine times last game, and his role in the running game is worth something as well. Slayton might also have more issues with volume as the weather isn’t perfect and could spell trouble for the longer routes that he runs. The Wan'Dale Robinson odds are also priced 30 points longer for a player with a similar TD projection, per THE BLITZ.

Starting corner Darius Slay has missed three straight games, and the Eagles are fresh off a tilt where they gave up 34 points to the Cardinals. Betting against the Eagles’ pass defense has been profitable this year, let’s hope for one more week. It’s 0.75 units for me and something I’d play to +330. 

Additionally, Isaiah Hodgins does have a decent red-zone role (second on the team in RZ targets) and is +1,400 to score at FanDuel, which is worth 0.25 units from me.

Wan'Dale Robinson prop: Anytime TD (+390 at FanDuel)

Isaiah Hodgins prop: Anytime TD (+1,400 at FanDuel for 0.25u)

Prop bet #3: Tre Tucker takeoff

Let’s finish off the regular season indoors with a rookie WR who is coming off a season-high in snaps and could have a solid matchup vs. a Denver team that might just want another season to end. 

Tre Tucker is now working as the No. 3 WR in the Raiders offense and tripled his routes run last week from 12 to 36. He has an indoor game where he could have another solid role and is being priced at +750 for a score with some books as low as +425. 

He has elite speed, plays all over the field, is good for a carry per game, and could see a heavy dose of routes again this week in the season finale. He is just three games removed from a two-TD game indoors vs. the Chargers and faces a Denver defense that will be keying more on Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers than the field-stretching Tucker.

This is just a half-unit play for me on the Tre Tucker odds as the matchup isn’t great and Aiden O'Connell is a tough QB to back, but his increased snaps aren’t being priced in enough here and he could see some extra looks Sunday with no weather to worry about, which isn’t easy to say in Week 18.

Tre Tucker prop: Anytime TD (+750 at DraftKings for 0.5u)