Patrick Mahomes Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets for Monday Night Football

With the New Orleans Saints taking on the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football, it's time to dive into the Patrick Mahomes odds.

The future Hall of Fame quarterback is now without a number of receivers but can stay undefeated this season with the help of Travis Kelce. We break down his props and NFL picks in our Saints vs. Chiefs predictions below.

Patrick Mahomes MNF player prop picks

• Best bet
  Over 230.5 passing yards
  (-113 at FanDuel)
  
  
• SGP Pick
  Over 230.5 passing yards
  Kelce anytime touchdown
  Kelce Over 55.5 receiving yards
  (+388 at FanDuel)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Patrick Mahomes MNF prop pick

My best bet
Over 230.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)

My analysis
The Kansas City Chiefs come into Monday Night Football with a number of injuries, particularly at the wide receiver position. We’ve seen Rashee Rice join Hollywood Brown on IR, and the team also has Mecole Hardman questionable on Monday.

The common thinking has been that with his best wideout out, we’re going to see the Chiefs revert to the running game, but that doesn’t feel like the case. We saw the Chiefs carry the ball 26 times last week, compared to 33 times the week before against the Falcons, a team that's good against the rush (like the Saints).

We also saw Travis Kelce finally burst back into life with nine targets; he caught seven for 89 yards and looked like the player we've seen dominate for so long. Likewise, Xavier Worthy turned three catches into 73 yards and a score and looked every bit as good as promised when he was drafted earlier this year. Noah Gray, Justin Watson, and Skyy Moore all got targeted, too.

It also saw Mahomes attempt the second-highest amount of passes this season, and with 245 yards, it was his second-best game in terms of passing yardage, too. His line for this game stands at 230.5, a number he’s hit in 50% of games so far,

When you look at the New Orleans Saints, it’s clear the way to attack them is through the air. They have a good defense but they’ve given up the ninth-most passing yards of any team in the league.

That average sits at 233.8, above this Mahomes line for this season. It’s also worth noting Mahomes has only played one of the teams with a worse average than the Saints and that was the Ravens, who he threw 291 yards against in Week 1.

The idea of the team relying on the rush also seems far-fetched. Not only did they decrease the volume of carries last week, they also have their best running back Isiah Pacheco on IR, so aren’t in the best of health in that department either.

Rookie Carson Steele has shown he’s not a great back, and Kareem Hunt, who got the most carries last week, isn’t the player he was at his peak. Is the team going to rely on them to win this game when the Saints allow the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game? It seems unlikely.

Back the Chiefs to let their best player win them the game by doing what he does best.

Patrick Mahomes MNF same-game parlay

Over 230.5 passing yards

Travis Kelce anytime touchdown

Travis Kelce Over 55.5 receiving yards

+388 at FanDuel

We’re also going to add his favorite target into the mix for our SGP, starting with a bet on Travis Kelce to score a touchdown.

We know all about his brilliance, but it’s worth remembering he’s scored 74 touchdowns for this team, and even if he hasn’t found the endzone yet, that day is coming soon. He’d only had eight catches in the first three games and had seven in the fourth. Any increased usage will only increase his chances of finding the endzone.

We’re doubling down on the tight end to go Over his receiving yards. Last week was the first game this season when we’ve seen Kelce heavily targeted, with nine compared to a high of five before that.

With that heavy usage, he managed 89 yards at 12.7 yards per catch. If he gets a similar level of usage this time aroud, he should be able to clear this number with ease.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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