Best NFL Touchdown Props for Week 5: Rookies Provide Value

Prop bet #1: Granson's ransom

There has been a lot of love for Tennessee vs. Indianapolis Over this week as that number has moved from 41.5 to 43.5 and could hit 44. Indy runs a fast-paced offense and the Colts can give up points as well — allowing nearly 25 per game. This game should see touchdowns from both teams.

Anthony Richardson is vulturing TDs but he is also getting his undervalued tight ends involved which is creating plenty of TD value — mostly with Kylen Granson. He threw two TDs to his tight ends last week making it three of the team's five receiving TDs coming from the TE position. Granson has one of the three. 

The third-year tight end paces his position in snaps with 155 to second-place Mo Alie-Cox’s 91. He’s run 74 more routes than Alie-Cox and is getting targeted on nearly one of every five routes.

In the red zone, the starting TE has three of the 13 red-zone targets but was the only TE last week not to get a TD despite leading the position in snaps and routes run. He is the more reliable player to target and at a hefty +435 (something I’d play to +390) I’m happy to put 0.75 units on him in Week 5. 

The Titans’ pass defense is a great target as running against this defense is a fool’s errand. Richardson has made strides as a passer week-to-week and although Michael Pittman at +200 or DeAndre Hopkins at +170 are very decent options (wink-wink), Granson is a sneaky +400-plus play in a game I’m expecting to see plenty of scoring. 

Kylen Granson prop: anytime TD (+435 at Pinnacle)

Prop bet #2: Of Rice and men

Rashee Rice leads all Kansas City receivers in targets, catches, and yards through four games and has a great matchup indoors in the highest-total game of the week. He’s also paying +275 to find the end zone vs. the Minnesota Vikings who have allowed five passing TDs at home this season across two games. 

Rice hasn’t run more than 25 routes in a game this year but is getting targeted on nearly 30% of them. Patrick Mahomes has been spreading the ball around this year, however, Rice is starting to emerge as the No.2 passing option behind Travis Kelce. 

Rice saw five targets last week with three of those coming inside the 20 and the receiver gets a great matchup vs. the Vikings who blitz a ton and leave their corners on an island. On the year, the Vikes and Brian Flores are blitzing at a 57% clip which is seven points higher than the next team. That might work vs. young and weaker QBs, but Mahomes will pick it apart as he completes 60% of his passes when facing pressure.

This market is also on the way south. It was as high as +300 on Thursday and some books are already as short as +175 which at that price, I’d much rather have DeAndre Hopkins (wink-wink) at the same odds. Pinnacle is even 30 points shorter than this price at +245. 

It’s a potential indoor shootout and I’m getting the No.1 wide receiver with a growing role vs. a sus(pect) secondary at +275. I wouldn’t play this below +250, but this is about as good a spot as Rice will have this year considering he hasn’t had a big game yet. One unit.  

Rashee Rice prop: anytime TD (+275 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Mr. probable

THE BLITZ has Miami’s De’Von Achane as the second-most probable TD of Week 5 behind David Montgomery. The rookie running back has six scores over his last two games and had a 60% snap rate to Raheem Mostert’s 44% last week. Achane also outcarried his teammate for the second straight week. 

This is one dangerous man with the ball in his hands. He’s totaled 353 yards over the last two weeks on just 33 touches for 10.69 yards per touch. He is currently projected for 0.87 TDs with his current anytime TD price of +105 implying roughly 0.65. That is a 34% difference between the implied and projected numbers and although this is a near-even-money play, it’s still very +EV.  

Miami is a 12.5-point favorite vs. a team that has not played a single snap with the lead in 2023. Game script and running will be a big part of Miami’s plans on Sunday vs. a team that is tied for the lead in rushing TDs allowed at 1.8 per game. That makes this matchup the No.1 rushing TD team (Miami at 2.5 per game) vs. the worst rushing TD defense (Giants at 1.8 allowed per game).

There are plenty of books at -175 for this TD but DraftKings and Pinnacle are currently posting +105 as of Friday night. I’d play this to -120 and trust the matchup, usage, and THE BLITZ projections. I’m riding a unit on this. 

De'Von Achane prop: anytime TD (+105 at DraftKings)