The Miami Dolphins face the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium on Monday Night Football, and I’m focusing on the Tua Tagovailoa odds as the Fins QB is now two full games back from his concussion. Can he and Miami return to their winning ways here?
I’ve taken a long look at the Tagovailoa-specific markets at FanDuel to present my best Dolphins vs. Rams predictions and NFL picks for November 11.
Tua Tagovailoa MNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 interceptions
(-120 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 interceptions
De’Von Achane Over 105.5 rushing + receiving yards
De’Von Achane anytime TD
(+423 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Tua Tagovailoa MNF prop pick
My best bet
Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 interceptions (-120 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Miami Dolphins lost three of four games without Tua Tagovailoa, and despite his return improving their performances, they haven’t managed to win. The Fins lost by a point in Week 8 and by three points last time out.
Things have been further complicated for them this week with news of Tyreek Hill’s injury. The 30-year-old has a wrist injury and is considered a game-time decision. If he doesn’t play, then we’re likely to see a lot of more of Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Malik Washington.
Tua Tagovailoa has already thrown three interceptions in just four games this season. Admittedly, they did come in just one game against the Bills, but he can take risks sometimes. Last season we saw him throw 15 picks in 18 games, an average of 0.83 per game.
This matchup puts him against a Los Angeles Rams defense that has been good at forcing takeaways. They’ve picked off the quarterback on eight occasions this year, giving them an average of one per game.
The potential absence of Hill will also increase the chances of a pick. The former Chief is one of Tua’s favorite receivers and has had 14 targets in the past two weeks since he returned to fitness.
If Tua is forced to throw to other targets, of which he enjoys less chemistry with, then there’s a greater chance of a pass being intercepted.
Tua Tagovailoa MNF same-game parlay
Tua Tagovailoa Over 0.5 interceptions
De’Von Achane Over 105.5 rushing + receiving yards
De’Von Achane anytime TD
Unfortunately, my best bet isn’t eligible to same-game parlay, so I’m taking Under 246.5 passing yards for Tua instead.
Tagovailoa has averaged 237 yards per game this season and has only hit the Over on his passing yards line once. With doubts over the fitness of Hill, it might mean we see the Dolphins really lean on the ground game.
If the team does decide to lean on the rush, then it’s going to be a big boost to De’Von Achane.
I’ll be taking him to have Over 105.5 scrimmage yards, as he’s gone over that mark in three games this season. Two of those have been in the past two weeks.
He’s had double-digit carries in all but one game and has had his highest amount of targets, eight per game, over the past two weeks.
Achane has scored five times this season with three touchdowns in the past two weeks. He’s healthy and playing really well.
It’s no surprise that he excels when Tua is fit and on the field too. All his games with touchdowns came in the four games that Tua has played this year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best Monday Night Football bonus
Get $150 in bonus bets when you win with FanDuel!
New users can create an account at FanDuel and place your first bet of $5+ on the NFL, and get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins — PLUS a free three-month trial of NBA League Pass!
Sign up now at FanDuel Sportsbook, or learn more with our comprehensive FanDuel review.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
See FanDuel T&Cs
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).
