The Southern California wildfires forced the NFL to move Monday’s Wild Card matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams from L.A. to Arizona. That left bookies refunding bets and reposting odds, opening Minnesota as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite.
My Vikings vs. Rams predictions target Minnesota quarterback Sam Darnold, who gets a boost from this venue change.
My NFL picks expect him to lean on both his arms and legs to move the chains on Monday, January 13 at State Farm Stadium.
Vikings vs Rams prediction
My best bet
Sam Darnold Over 11.5 rushing yards (-125 at Caesars)
My analysis
Sam Darnold has had one hell of a season for the Minnesota Vikings. The veteran quarterback surprised everyone with his play — despite being a placeholder QB until J.J. McCarthy was ready — and stepped up to the challenge when the star rookie was injured in the offseason.
Perhaps the most surprising part of Darnold’s game is something he hasn’t used all that often: his legs. He's a sneaky quick runner when forced to tuck the ball and take off. He’s shown that ability to break off gains with his legs at times in 2024, including four games in which he rushed for more than 20 yards.
Monday’s NFL player prop markets have Darnold’s rushing total at 11.5 yards Over/Under — just shy of his season average of 12.5 rushing yards per game.
With this being his first postseason start and the Los Angeles Rams knowing the Vikings’ offensive tendencies extremely well (thanks to Sean McVay’s tutelage of Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell), Darnold could feel the urge to take off if his first and second passing looks aren’t open.
He ran just three times for only six yards in the regular season meeting with the Rams in Week 8. Los Angeles hasn’t played too many fleet-footed QBs, but when it did, it got torched by those dual-threat weapons.
Kyler Murray scrambled for a collective 91 yards in two games, Jalen Hurts ran for 39 yards, Josh Allen burned L.A. for 82 yards, and Brock Purdy — who has the same “sneaky speed” as Darnold — finished with 41 yards rushing in a Week 3 matchup with Los Angeles.
We often see quarterbacks running more in the playoffs, and player projections for Darnold don’t deny his ability to break off gains on the ground.
Models range from 10.9 yards to as many as 18.4, with the majority of those forecasts calling for 12+ rushing yards on Monday. My number comes in just shy of 15 yards rushing for Darnold.
Vikings vs Rams same-game parlay
Sam Darnold Over 11.5 rushing yards
Justin Jefferson anytime touchdown
Rams +2.5
Darnold will surprise you with his wheels and I have him projected for 15 yards rushing.
The Rams have been burned by the big play, and J.J. is the Vikings home run hitter. We’ll get a Wild Card “Griddy” on Monday night.
Even with the move to Arizona, I think the Rams will keep this close. Los Angeles is one of the best teams at turning it on in the fourth quarter.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL Playoffs picks and odds from Covers
Vikings vs Rams odds
Vikings vs Rams live odds
Vikings vs Rams opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -2.5 | Los Angeles +2.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota -150 | Los Angeles +125
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Vikings vs Rams spread and Over/Under analysis
- The re-open of this spread hit the board at the same spot the original line opened, with the Vikings as 2.5-point chalk. Except that line hasn’t slimmed up like it did when the game was being held in Los Angeles.
- This total really hasn’t changed. It was around 47.5 points in L.A. and sits around that same mark in Arizona, with some books up to 48 O/U.
Vikings vs Rams betting trend to know
Rams head coach Sean McVay is 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS as a postseason underdog during his tenure in Los Angeles. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Rams.
Vikings vs Rams game info
| Location: | State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ |
| Date: | Monday, 1-13-2025 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Vikings vs Rams latest injuries
Vikings vs Rams weather
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