Week 10 NFL Parlay Picks: Levis Lights up Shoddy Bucs Stoppers

When Tommy DeVito starts for the New York Giants on Sunday, it will mark the 10th rookie quarterback to start at least one game this season, breaking an NFL record (not counting the strike season). While I can't endorse DeVito or the Giants as 17-point underdogs in the NFL odds this week, I will place my trust in rookie QB C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans, as well as fellow first-year signal caller Will Levis and the Tennessee Titans. 

Find out how I'm attacking Week 10 of the NFL season as I outline my free NFL parlay picks.

Week 10 NFL parlay picks

• Texans +7 + Jaguars +3 + Saints ML = +468
• Titans +1.5 + Levis o211.5 pass yards + Levis o1.5 pass TDs = +456

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best Week 10 parlay pick

Texans +7

Jaguars +3

Saints moneyline

+468 at bet365

The Bengals ride a four-game win streak into Sunday's battle with Houston, but I'm not buying into the belief that they're "back" and will gladly take a full touchdown with C.J. Stroud and the Texans. 

Cincinnati beat up on a sorry Cardinals team before escaping with a victory over the Seahawks despite being outgained 384-214 at home. Then the Bengals beat a slumping Niners team off a bye before scraping by another slumping Super Bowl odds contender in the Bills.

The Cincy defense is regressing despite the wins piling up, particularly in the passing game, where it's produced its three worst efforts of the year over the last three weeks. Stroud will be hard-pressed to replicate his 470-yard, five-touchdown performance from Week 9, but he'll give the Bengals all they can handle.

Joe Burrow could be in for a rough day, especially if Ja'Marr Chase is at less than 100%. The Texans are only 17th in passing yards allowed, but their seven passing scores allowed are the second-best mark in football. Couple this with their resolute rush defense, which has allowed 96 or fewer yards in four straight games, and the Cincy offense could be rendered one-dimensional.

I'm eyeing another upset in Week 10 when the Jaguars host the 49ers as field-goal underdogs.

Jacksonville catching points at home has been a recipe for success of late, as it's 6-1 straight up in its last seven such games. The Jags rank third in rushing defense this year (79.3 yards allowed per game), so that should help them take the ball out of Christian McCaffrey's hands and put the onus on Brock Purdy. Trevor Lawrence may not be playing at an MVP level this year, but he is more than capable of winning a duel with Purdy.

Finally, the Saints should be getting more respect in Minnesota this Sunday. Turnovers could tell the story of this game, with New Orleans at +8 on the year while the Vikings are at -5. The Saints have amassed 400 or more total yards in three of their last four games, with Derek Carr going for over 300 yards passing three times. Taysom Hill has been folded nicely into the attack of late too.

Joshua Dobbs has proven to be a nice story, but there's a reason the Cardinals moved on from him so readily. He should struggle to solve the Saints' seventh-ranked pass stoppers.

Best Week 10 SGP

Titans +1.5

Will Levis Over 211.5 passing yards

Will Levis Over 1.5 passing TDs

+456 at Caesars

I'm taking the Titans against the spread as they visit the Buccaneers this week, and the main reason for doing so is Will Levis, who's recently been announced as Tennessee's starting quarterback for the rest of the season. With the fledgling star ready to spread his wings off an extended rest period from Thursday's Week 9 tilt in Pittsburgh, Levis draws an ideal matchup with the Bucs' putrid pass defense.

Tampa is second worst in the NFL by both passing yards allowed per game (279.4) and net yards gained per attempt (seven). Yet Caesars has assigned Levis an ultra-low number of 211.5 passing yards.

Other books have Levis anywhere from 212.5 to 215.5 passing yards, but I believe he'll clear this low bar rather easily. He did so in each of his first two NFL appearances, going for 238 yards vs. the Falcons and 262 yards vs. the Steelers.

The Bucs have also allowed 13 passing TDs on the campaign, which is the eighth-worst mark in football. That figure looks even worse when you consider that six of the seven teams that have allowed more passing scores have played one additional game, with Atlanta being the exception at 17 passing touchdowns allowed over eight contests. 

Levis is partially responsible for the Falcons' woes in that department, as he torched them for four scores through the air on debut before being blanked by Pittsburgh on a short turnaround on the road. At generous plus-odds to get to two passing touchdowns in this one, it looks like a no-brainer to add to the SGP.

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