NFL Week 10 Total Bets: Jousting in Jacksonville

Our NFL expert picks expect a pair of low-scoring games and a shootout in Jacksonville between the Vikings and Jaguars.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Nov 9, 2024 • 16:39 ET • 4 min read
Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars
Photo By - Imagn Images.

German NFL fans might be less than thrilled with the quarterback duel between Bryce Young and Daniel Jones on Sunday but I'm looking to take advantage of that matchup between anemic aerial attacks.

My NFL picks are also betting on a shootout between the Vikings and Jaguars while expecting a low-scoring clash between the Bills and Colts. Here are my favorite NFL total bets for Week 10

Week 10 totals bets

Read full analysis of each pick.

Best Week 10 Over/Under picks

Over/Under bet #1: Giants vs Panthers Under 40.5

Among 35 quarterbacks with at least 150 snaps, Carolina Panthers pivot Bryce Young ranks 35th in EPA/play and has averaged just 5.4 yards per pass attempt. It doesn't help that the Panthers traded away leading receiver Diontae Johnson while Adam Thielen and left tackle Ikem Ekwonu are sidelined by injuries. 

The New York Giants are also missing their left tackle and a key receiver with Andrew Thomas and Darius Slayton injured. Meanwhile, Daniel Jones is 25th among QBs in EPA/play, and the Giants leaned heavily on their ground game last week despite facing a weak Commanders secondary.  

Expect a heavy dose of running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. against a Panthers defense that ranks 31st in defensive rush EPA. Likewise, Carolina's best player has been running back Chuba Hubbard (665 rushing yards, 5.0 yards per carry), and the Giants allow a league-worst 5.2 yards per rush.

With both teams unable to attack the ball downfield, expect plenty of running and ball control in Germany.

Over/Under bet #2: Bills vs Colts Under 46.5

The Buffalo Bills have a highly efficient offense, but they play at a slow tempo and love to run the ball. Even last week against Miami's mediocre secondary, they rarely attacked downfield, with most of their passes coming underneath coverage. They are also depleted at wide receiver, with Keon Coleman ruled out and Amari Cooper listed as questionable due to a wrist injury that kept him out last week.

The Indianapolis Colts had one of the worst defenses in the league at the start of the year, but they've looked better in recent weeks with Pro Bowl defensive tackle Deforest Buckner returning to the lineup. They are now a respectable 13th in the league in defensive EPA and rank seventh in that metric since Week 6.

That said, their offense has struggled, and it became evident last week that Joe Flacco isn't going to be their savior. The Colts will also be without top receiver Michael Pittman Jr., while Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly and right guard Will Fries are on the IR.

Over/Under bet #3: Vikings vs Jaguars Over 43

The total for this game plummeted from 46.5 to 43.5 after the news came out that Mac Jones would replace an injured Trevor Lawrence. That might be a bit of an overreaction when you consider how erratic Lawrence has been this season.

Jones struggled last year, but that was surrounded by a brutal WR corps and offensive line in New England, and he's in a better spot to succeed here. Especially with the Minnesota Vikings defense regressing by allowing 5.9 yards per play over the last three weeks.

But the primary reason why I love the Over in this matchup is because I expect Minnesota's offense to do the heavy lifting on the scoreboard. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 32nd in the league in defensive EPA and 30th in points allowed per game (28.0).

They've been especially bad through the air, surrendering the second-most passing yards per game (264.3) and the worst opponent pass efficiency (113.4). They'll get lit up by Sam Darnold and a Vikes aerial attack that features Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson.

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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