What a crazy year it's been in the NFL so far.
Exactly how whacky has it been? Well...
• Geno Smith and Justin Fields are considered good quarterbacks right now.
• Russell Wilson is considered a bad quarterback right now.
• Aaron Rodgers might be even worse.
And as such, trying to sort through the NFL odds — especially the look-ahead lines — on a weekly basis makes everything even more topsy-turvy.
However, there is something in the early Week 11 odds that catches my eye. Here's a hint: It involves fading one of the QBs mentioned above, who happens to be a sizable home dog in Week 10 and has a questionable spread with a bad matchup next week.
You want early value for a free NFL pick? Well, let's dive into why I'm piling on Rodgers against the visiting Tennessee Titans.
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Tennessee Titans +1.5 (@ Green Bay Packers)
| Teams | Current spread |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans |
-1.5 (-110) |
 Green Bay Packers |
+1.5 (-110) |
After mustering nine points in a loss to the pathetic Detroit Lions defense last week, I'm completely out on the Packers.
They've now lost five straight games and you cannot convince me that they are anything other than a bad professional football team... plus, up next is a home date with the 6-2 Dallas Cowboys.
Green Bay opened as a 4-point pup at Lambeau for this Week 10 game. That in itself is wild as the Packers have closed as a home dog just twice in the past five seasons (Week 14 last year and Week 2 in 2018, both against the Vikings), both closing at +2, but what's even more remarkable is that bettors are piling against Aaron Rodgers & Co., as the line has already moved to +5.
In addition to the Dallas defense being one of the NFL's best, Rodgers is still on the injury report with a bad thumb, top running back Aaron Jones is questionable after suffering an ankle injury last week, wide receiver Romeo Doubs is out for a few weeks, and tackle David Bakhtiari was also injured vs. Detroit and has not practiced.
On the other side, we have the Titans, who had a five-game win streak snapped last week but actually impressed people by taking the Kansas City Chiefs to overtime with Malik Willis under center.
Yes, the Titans nearly beat Patrick Mahomes on the road with a QB who went 5/16 for 80 yards, a week after winning with Willis going 6/10 for 55 yards. How did Mike Vrabel's squad manage this?
1) A strong blitz-free pass rush
Tennessee only blitzed four times against Houston two weeks ago, but got pressure on 33.3% of Davis Mills' dropbacks and forced eight bad throws. The Titans blitzed just five times against Mahomes, but forced nine bad throws and held the Chiefs to 20 points.
Overall, the Titans blitz at the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL, but are 10th in hurry percentage and seventh in QB pressures — Rodgers sits 32nd in completion percentage while pressured and he may be without his top offensive lineman and his best offensive weapon.
2) Derrick Henry
King Henry always kicks it into high gear for the second half and he's started off the back half of the 2022 season no different, rushing for 334 yards on 6.82 yards per carry over his last two games, including this:
Derrick Henry is an absolute freak of nature pic.twitter.com/2MGdYhySCi
— Mike Herndon (@MikeHerndonNFL) November 2, 2022
Remember, this is a guy who is 6-foot-3 and 247 pounds, and that is bad news for the Packers, who allow the eighth-worst opponent yards per carry, the seventh-most rushing yards per game, and have surrendered at least 153 rushing yards in four of their last six contests.
Even if Willis is under center again for Week 11, the Titans are a terrible matchup for Green Bay... but Ryan Tannehill (Tennessee's No. 1 QB and a competent pass thrower) has been more active in practice this week and could play in Week 10 — meaning he should be ready to go against the Pack.
And this team is getting points right now?
This current line (as high as Titans +1.5) suggests that on a neutral field, these teams are basically even. I don't agree with that, as I think the Titans are the better team.
The Packers have seen line movement against them in three of the previous four games and with a sixth-consecutive defeat (and likely an ugly one) likely incoming this Sunday, public perception will continue to plummet for the Cheeseheads — whereas the Titans face a disappointing Broncos team and have a strong chance to enter this Week 11 matchup winning six of seven.
This line could (and should) drop to a pick'em eventually, and even possibly swing to see Tennessee laying points. Many books are showing Green Bay -1, so you could take that or grab the Titans moneyline at a slightly better price, but a handful of operators are showing Tennessee +1.5 — and that's what I'm hopping on.
