The look-ahead lines for Week 12 odds are out, and this looks like one of those weeks where early value isn't jumping out with a bright neon sign.
So, in cases like this, we fall back on tried-and-true trends and reliable scenarios when sifting through NFL odds:
Bank on bad teams to be, well, bad.
Yes, my friends, I'm going to suggest we make a play on crappy teams in a marquee time slot. Original? Nope. Exciting? Absolutely not. A logical value play because one book has a look-ahead line that seems off compared to others? Yup.
It's not the coolest angle ever, but sometimes you just gotta get to the net and try and score a greasy goal, ya know?
Sorry, wrong sport there... but you get the drift. Obviously, we're still waiting to see how Week 11 unfolds, which could blow this out of whack, but I think I've got one option for a free NFL pick that we can make now... for next Monday night.
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts Under 41.5
I told you this was ugly.
I don't like the idea of betting on a cooked Matt Ryan against an overwhelmed Kenny Pickett — especially on Monday Night Football — but here we are. Look at the bright side: If we're going to bet on these guys, it's best to bet on them being bad... right?
Let's start with the Colts. They're coming off a 25-point effort last week, and stud running back Jonathan Taylor is finally back... but that output was just the second time all season the Colts topped 20 points and they scored 12 of those points on big TD plays in the final 16 minutes (with two failed conversions) — this is still an offense that is 24th in yards per game and 30th in points.
Bettors have also been heavily against the Indianapolis offense as well, with the full-game total seeing downward movement in five of the last six games and the total closing as low as 41 in each of those contests.
And almost all of those opponents were better offenses than the Steelers... which I can confidently say because Pittsburgh is 31st in the NFL in scoring and 28th in ypg.
Pittsburgh has yet to top 20 points in regulation this season — it managed to get 23 points in a season-opening OT win... when it forced five turnovers — and even in the Steelers' most recent game (a 20-10 win against New Orleans), Pickett was just 18 of 30 for 199 yards as the Steelers gained more yards on the ground than through the air.
Both of these teams' offensive "strengths" reside in their ground games, but these clubs are actually fifth (Indianapolis) and seventh (Pittsburgh) in rush defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders) — the offensive load will be shifted back into the hands of Ryan and Pickett... that's not a good thing.
These offenses average a combined 31.3 points per game, and while most operators are posting this at 39.5 on the look-ahead, FanDuel is throwing us a bone and offering this total still at 41.5.
I don't expect the Week 11 action to do anything to keep this total from staying low, as Pittsburgh hosts the Bengals and Indianapolis welcomes the Eagles, which are both explosive offenses — yet the totals are just 40.5 (for Cincy/Pitt) and 44.5 (for Philly/Indy).
This Week 12 game shouldn't be in that neighborhood, so grab that 41.5 now before this line joins the other books in the sub-40 club.
