There I was, minding my own business, laying on my couch thinking that my teaser cold streak was about to come to an end… but there Tommy DeVito was, charging the Giants up the field on the way to a game-winning field goal, breaking my heart and I’m sure the heart of countless others who teased the Packers down to 0.5 in the NFL odds.
To make matters worse, at right around the same time, I was on another emotional roller coaster of watching my Miami Dolphins choke away a win against the Tennessee Titans in what was the most humiliating loss in franchise history. How ridiculous of a comeback was it by the Titans? Well, over the last 20 seasons, teams who were down by 14 or more points inside of the final three minutes had a record of 3-2074!
Minutes before each of the crippling losses, I vividly remember thinking, “Wow, the Dolphins are going to win this game and the Packers are going to cover their teaser leg!” Needless to say, I didn’t sleep very well on Monday night… and, oh yeah, I’m also a Blue Jays fan and was tricked into believing that my team was about to land Shohei Ohtani, so I’ve been taking some hits!
But as always, I live to bet another day and this column lives on to break down Week 15 odds!
Let's end the regular season on a strong note with this week's NFL picks.
Week 15 NFL teaser picks
six-point teaser
- Chiefs (-2)
- Rams (-0.5)
Picks made on December 15 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Week 15 Teaser
Chiefs (-8 to -2) vs Patriots
How perfect is it to be able to tease the Kansas City Chiefs down inside of a field goal? No, they’re not as good as they were last season, but this is an excellent team that might still end up as the number-one overall seed in the AFC.
What do we think this spread would have been had Kadarius Toney not gone offside the Chiefs won vs the Bills last week and the New England Patriots didn’t have an outlier performance against the Steelers. Had that been the case, we likely wouldn’t be able to tease them inside of the key number of three.
While both defenses have been strong, these offenses aren’t even close. This is a matchup between teams that rank seventh and 28th in yards per play while the Chiefs are averaging 9.5 more points per game. While this likely won’t be a highlight-reel type of game for Patrick Mahomes, this is one of the most desperate spots he’s ever been in following two straight losses, so they should be able to do enough to beat Zappe and the Patriots.
Rams (-6.5 to -0.5) vs Commanders
The Los Angeles Rams’ offense is flying high as they’ve surpassed the 30-point mark in three straight games, including in back-to-back games against the Browns and Ravens. Now, coming off that OT loss in Baltimore, they’re back home against a Washington Commanders team that allows the most points per game.
Matthew Stafford is playing his best football of the season with 10 touchdown passes and just one interception in the three-game offensive tear and should be able to fill the stat sheet once again. Washington is dead-last in yards allowed per pass attempt while also allowing a league-high 266 passing yards per game.
It would also appear that the Commanders’ offense is regressing. They’ve failed to top 20 points in three straight games where Sam Howell has five interceptions and just one touchdown pass. This matchup sets up fantastically for Los Angeles.
Learn more about teaser betting with Covers’ teaser betting guide.
Best Week 15 teaser spots
- Chiefs (-8 to -2)
- Rams (-6.5 to -2)
- Giants vs. Saints (+5.5 to +11.5)
- Vikings vs. Bengals (+3.5 to +9.5)
- 49ers vs. Cardinals (-12 to -6)
The New Orleans Saints can’t be trusted. They’ve gone 2-8-1 ATS as a favorite this season and I think they’ll have their hands full against the New York Giants who’ve been an outright winner in three straight games as an underdog. The path to a successful performance for New York will come on the ground. The Giants are fifth in yards per rush attempt over the last three games, while the Saints are struggling in that department, ranking 29th in yards per rush allowed in the three-game sample size.
The Minnesota Vikings don’t lose by a lot of points. Each of their six losses have come by seven points or less and I think we’ll see them play in another tight game in Cincinnati. Defensively, this matchup isn’t close. Minessota seems to be getting better with each passing week as they’re now tied for fifth in yards per play allowed while the Cincinnati Bengals rank 31st. This will be Jake Browning’s stiffest test yet and I think he could have trouble settling in against the Vikings who blitz at a league-high 47.4%.
Teasing a team to -6 is far from a traditional teaser play, but San Francisco’s domination can’t be ignored. They’re stacking up lopsided wins with seven victories of 18 or more points on the season and have destroyed the Arizona Cardinals lately, beating them by 21 earlier in the season, while also smacking them by 25 and 28 last season. Expect the 49ers to light up the Cardinals through the air. San Fran easily leads the NFL in yards per pass attempt, while Arizona ranks 27th in that category defensively.
Not intended for use in MA.
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