Christmas is nearly here, and so are the NFL playoffs. You'll often find juiced prices on teams that "want it more" at this time of year, but I think there are some postseason hopefuls being dangled at playable odds.
I'm mixing a fairly low-risk moneyline parlay with a more aggressive same-game parlay as I look to secure a winning holiday weekend in Week 16, so please join me as I discuss the NFL odds and share my free NFL picks for Sunday, December 24.
Week 16 NFL parlay picks
- Browns ML + Bears ML + Broncos ML = +231
- R. Mostert TD + R. Mostert 70+ rush yds + D. Prescott o270.5 pass yds = +584
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best Week 16 parlay pick
Browns moneyline
Bears moneyline
Broncos moneyline
I'm not going to fool around with point spreads in this all-favorites three-leg parlay, and with BetRivers hanging the best moneylines on both the Bears and the Broncos, it makes them an obvious choice to play with. bet365 has the next-best price at +221.
This three-legger starts with the Browns, who are laying less than a field goal on the road vs. a Texans team that figures to be without C.J. Stroud (doubtful) once again. Joe Flacco has been unbelievable at age 38, passing for over 300 yards in each of his last two games for Cleveland, both wins. Houston is 25th in passing yards allowed per game, and that's after surrendering just 138 yards through the air to the offensively challenged Titans, whom they barely outlasted in overtime last week.
No matter who's under center for the Texans, it will be a mighty task to challenge the Browns' top-ranked pass defense.
The Cardinals and Bears both defied expectations earlier in the year, with Arizona showing some pluck while Chicago struggled mightily. But things have evened out, and the Cardinals look like arguably the worst team in the NFL while the Bears are trending toward respectability.
Arizona has been blown out in two of its last three games, with a win over the sliding Steelers in a weird, twice-delayed game in Pittsburgh in the middle. Meanwhile, Chicago knocked off both the Vikings and Lions in successive matchups before losing by just a field goal to a solid Browns squad.
The home/road splits do not work in favor of Kyler Murray & Co, as Arizona drops from 24th to 30th in total offense, while the Bears climb from 14th to third in total defense. Arizona's 31st-ranked run stoppers figure to be trampled by Justin Fields and Chicago's flight of tailbacks.
The third and final leg is simply a fade of the Patriots vs. a respectable Broncos squad that's still in the playoff hunt. New England has topped 17 points just three times in 2023, and Denver allowed an average of just 16 points across an eight-game span prior to Week 15.
Best Week 16 SGP
Raheem Mostert anytime TD
Raheem Mostert 70+ rushing yards
Dak Prescott Over 270.5 passing yards
25% boost available
FanDuel is my go-to site here as it remains at 270.5 passing yards for Dak Prescott while most sites are between 274.5 and 276.5 passing yards and trending upward as of Thursday afternoon. But I'll start my analysis with Raheem Mostert, who takes up two of the three legs in this SGP for Sunday's hotly-anticipated showdown between the Cowboys and the Dolphins.
Mostert has been a touchdown-scoring machine for the Dolphins, breaking the franchise record for most rushing scores in a season with four weeks to go. Minus-odds on most TD scorers aren't appealing, but I'll make an exception for the talented tailback who figures to break the plane at least once at -115. FanDuel has the best price on this prop if you're looking to bet it straight-up, while BetMGM has it as low as -190.
Mostert should shred a Cowboys defense that's ranked 19th by rushing yards allowed per game and 20th in rushing yards per attempt. This unit was torched by James Cook just last week and has given up at least 100 rushing yards in six of its last seven games.
FanDuel's baseline on Mostert's rushing yards is 58.5, a bit higher than the consensus line of 56.5, but I'm comfortable going for some added juice on an alternate rushing line with Mostert at 70+ yards. It's a threshold he's crossed in four of his last six overall, and the two misses were in games vs. the Commanders and Jets that were both well out of hand late.
Finally, I believe Prescott will be busy trying to keep Dallas in this game with his arm, leading to plenty of throws and yardage. Dak had a three-game streak with 270+ passing yards broken up by the Bills last Sunday.
The coup de grace with betting this SGP on FanDuel is that they'll tack on a 25% bonus if it hits.
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